Short term weather trends

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Short term weather trends

Please note: Weather information is guided by the Bureau Of Meteorology , Oz Cyclone Chasers , Moreton Bay Regional Council and observations at Caboolture & surrounding districts of the Moreton Bay Region at 101.5 FM.

Special Note:  We have designed a current specific Storm event page, in a bid to reduce the clutter on the weather trends page by placing the current impacting storm information on to a new platform at Weather Now.

Any time there is a Major Storm Event this will be your go to page at at Weather Now.

Declarations :


Resources:   Articles on keeping you, your home or business prepared before and during storms

Summer Storms and being prepared with 101.5 FM

Storm Surge, What is it and how can you prepare?

Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region

Keeping Prepared for storms around your home, business view our archive of guides and stories

Power Outages, Translink Train, Weather Warnings Queensland BOM, Weather Radar South East Queensland (Mt Stapylton) or Weather Radar South East Queensland (Marberg).

Official start of the Summer Wet season starts November 1

Recent related stories:

Podcast: Chris Nitsopoulos Oz Cyclone Chasers on this summer wet season on 101.5 2020-10-01

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Current Weather Trends:

Short Term Weather/Month ahead

We are now in weakening trending to neutral La Nina with the last Monsoon due in mid March

April 13 to April 20


South Easterlies will dry things out

Below Average Rain for South East Queensland

April 20 to April 27


South Easterlies will dry things out

Below Average to below average Rain for South East Queensland

April 27 to May 4


Below average Rain for South East Queensland

May 4 to May 11

South Easterlies will dry things out

Average to below average Rain for South East Queensland

May 11 to May 18

South Easterlies will dry things out

Below average Rain for South East Queensland

May 18 to May 25

Possible coastal showers for South East Queensland

 Warm waters for the Coral Sea

Long Range Note: La Niña looks to repeat for next summer season with potentially a even stronger La Niña and this could mirror more accurately of what transpired back in 2011/2012, increased warming of waters in the coral sea is also noted. Trends for a La Niña or cool neutral winter and a negative IOD with Indian Ocean cooling.


Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it’s flooded, forget it.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500

Handy Links & Moreton Bay Regional Council Advisories

Important Contacts and Links

Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region

Get Moreton Bay Regional Council : Moreton Alert

Life threatening emergencies: Triple Zero (000)

SES flood or storm assistance: 132 500

Council: (07) 3205 0555

Council local road conditions at council’s website

Unitywater: 1300 086 489

Energex: 13 62 62

Department of Main Roads

Parking vehicles under solid shelter, with the handbrake on and in gear

Putting wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in backyard pools or inside with other loose items

Drawing curtains and shutting doors

Packing a kit with essential medications, baby formula, nappies, valuables, important papers, photos, mementoes in waterproof bags, as part of emergency kits

Checking neighbours — especially new arrivals — are aware of the situation and are preparing

Remaining indoors with pets, not moving to public shelters unless advised by local authorities

Keeping a battery operated radio and Staying tuned to local radio 101.5 for further information

Plus Moreton Bay region Checklist:

  • Know the risks – think about the risks in your local area. How could a cyclone, severe storm, flood or bushfire impact you?
  • Prepare your family – prepare an emergency plan about how to respond to local risks, including an emergency kit of essential items including a torch, battery operated radio and spare food and water (for at least three days).
  • Prepare your property – check your gutters, roof, and insurance for house and other property. Get to know your neighbours and see if you can work together to get ready.
  • Stay alert – tune in to warnings with MoretonAlert (register at Moreton Alert or call council 3205 0555), listen to radio updates or log onto the Bureau of Metereology’s website.
  • Take action – activate your emergency plan, locate your emergency kit, secure loose items and if you are evacuating do so early and check road conditions before setting off.

For more information: and Moreton Bay Regional Council Disaster Portal

  • Re-check your property for any loose material and tie down (or fill with water) all large, relatively light items such as boats and rubbish bins.
  • Fill vehicles’ fuel tanks.
  • Check your emergency kit and fill water containers.
  • Ensure household members know which is the strongest part of the house and what to do in the event of a cyclone warning or an evacuation.
  • Tune to your local radio/TV for further information and warnings.
  • Check that neighbours are aware of the situation and are preparing.

Moreton Bay Regional Council new webpage official Sandbags Locator

If Its Flooded – Forget it !!

In the event of heavy rain falling, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.

Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.

Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.

No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.

Forward Projections

After the recent record rain and the previous summer’s record dry, what does this winter’s climate have in store?

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting April to June to be likely wetter than average across the north of Australia and drier than average for the southern half of Queensland, inland parts of NSW and Victoria, and far eastern SA.

But making seasonal forecasts at this time of year is difficult, due to what forecasters call the “autumn predictability barrier”.

“At this time of year, we’re probably at the lowest point at the moment in terms of skill in predicting seasonal drivers such as El Niño, La Niña, or the Indian Ocean Dipole,” said Felicity Gamble, a climatologist from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Climate reset switch

Dr Gamble said that in March and April, the world’s climate often underwent a global “reset”, where El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole returned to neutral, making it harder to predict what the upcoming season would bring.

“This is what we’ve just seen with this most recent La Niña, which just returned to neutral values,” Dr Gamble said.

This map shows the pool of cold water in the central eastern Pacific dispersing as La Niña wanes. Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology

“It’s also the time when we start to see early signs of the next climate-driver event developing. Often it starts to show a few little signs at this time of year before becoming more established during the winter months,” she said.

In other words, at this time of year, the crucial ocean temperatures that drive the Australian climate could go either way, and small weather events in the tropics can lead to big climate impacts later in the year.

“It’s like a reset switch. And we’re starting again with the next cycle,” Dr Gamble said.

Climate in neutral gear

Right now, Australia’s two big climate drivers, ENSO and the IOD, are in neutral.

At times like this, Australian weather becomes more influenced by shorter-term drivers like the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, which mainly affects northern Australia.

“The MJO is going to be the strongest driver of our rainfall patterns over the next few weeks as it comes into the Australian region,” Dr Gamble said.

In fact, weather models are predicting the development of a low off the north-west of Australia over the coming days, as the MJO influences northern Australia.

Beyond this, the Bureau of Meteorology said May showed a mostly neutral climate signal, with some areas of the east likely to be drier than average.

Climate secrets deep in the ocean

Researchers in Australia are working to break through the autumn predictability barrier, in part by better understanding ocean temperatures below the sea surface.

El Niño and La Niña events can be first detected in changes in sub-surface water temperatures, according to Harun Rashid, a principal research scientist with the CSIRO Climate Science Centre.

“If we include the sub-surface temperature in climate models, for example the ocean temperatures at 300 metres’ depth, as well as the surface temperature, then you have less of a predictability barrier,” he said.

At the Bureau of Meteorology, senior research scientist Andrew Marshall said it was hard to make long-term predictions at this time of year because the oceans had not yet coupled with the atmosphere.

“By coupled, I mean the atmosphere and the ocean working together,” he said.

“For example, when the ocean starts to warm, then the atmosphere above that ocean will respond. And then that can reinforce the warming in the ocean.

“It’s really once the atmosphere and ocean couple, that we then we can better understand how these events will evolve. And we then have better prediction skill, and typically that occurs from about May onwards.”

BOM forecasts wet autumn for some as La Niña weather system declines

The autumn outlook suggests there is a high likelihood of exceeding median rainfall on the east coast but conditions are expected to be more average or even below average in the west.(Bureau of Meteorology)

The much-discussed La Niña phenomenon has brought the best wet season for years in the Top End and a welcome change to rainier conditions for most of the country, but some still missed out this summer.

And the Bureau of Meteorology [BOM] autumn outlook is for wetter-than-average conditions in the east.

According to BOM climatologist Naomi Benger, La Niña will continue to wield influence into autumn even though it is weakening.

“The typical lifecycle of La Niña is that it decays through autumn,” she said.

“We are expecting it to decay through early autumn, but we are still seeing quite strong signals in the atmosphere, even though some of the oceanic measurements are hinting towards the decay.”

Hence, encouraging signs of rain in areas that need it.

“We are expecting above average rainfall in eastern and some northern parts, including those parts of Queensland that have missed out so far this year,” Dr Benger said.

And cyclone season isn’t over until the end of April.

Above-average minimum temperatures are expected to continue across most of the country, with the exception of central and western South Australia and south-eastern Western Australia.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be above average for the far north and south as well as the far west.

Bring on the wet

So far, La Niña’s impact has fallen well short of infamous flood years like 2011 and 1974.

Summer still has a few days to go and, according to Dr Benger, rain has been above average for the nation as a whole and the highest seen since the summer of 2016-17.

The map shows rainfall anomalies for Australia in December 2020 and January 2021. Average to below areas can be seen around southern WA and Queensland.(Bureau of Meteorology)

Bushfire outlook

That was a sentiment echoed by John Bates, research director at the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.

The official autumn bushfire outlook, also released today, suggests most of the country can expect average fire conditions this autumn.

Fire conditions are expected to be normal for most of the country.(Bushfire and natural hazards CRC)

But according to Dr Bates the risk of grass and crop fires continues in the coming months, particularly where rain has created good growing conditions.

“Autumn will still see hot and windy days that raise the fire risk in some locations,” he said.

Areas that have missed out on rain so far in Queensland are at above average risk.

“But when the weather conditions allow, the March to May period is a good time of year for prescribed burning,” according to Dr Bates.

Maximum temperatures are expected to be average for much of continental Australia but above average around the coasts and for Tasmania.(Bureau of Meteorology)

“However, in northern Australia, the good wet season means that prescribed burning will be difficult in the coming months.”


Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up.

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Bureau Of Meteorology Cyclone Bulletin


Current Cyclones impacting on South East Queensland