Short term weather trends

Please note: Weather information is guided by the Bureau Of Meteorology , Oz Cyclone Chasers , Moreton Bay Regional Council and observations at Caboolture & surrounding districts of the Moreton Bay Region at 101.5 FM.

Special Note:  We have designed a current specific Storm event page, in a bid to reduce the clutter on the weather trends page by placing the current impacting storm information on to a new platform at Weather Now.

Any time there is a Major Storm Event this will be your go to page at at Weather Now.

Declarations :

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Resources:   Articles on keeping you, your home or business prepared before and during storms

Summer Storms and being prepared with 101.5 FM

Storm Surge, What is it and how can you prepare?

Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region

Keeping Prepared for storms around your home, business view our archive of guides and stories

Power Outages, Translink Train, Weather Warnings Queensland BOM, Weather Radar South East Queensland (Mt Stapylton) or Weather Radar South East Queensland (Marberg).

Official start of the Summer Wet season starts November 1

Recent related stories:

Podcast: Chris Nitsopoulos Oz Cyclone Chasers on this summer wet season on 101.5 2020-10-01

Moreton Bay Region and South East Queensland warned to prepare for floods and bushfires this summer

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Do Not Let Complacency surprise you when an Emergency strikes

Get ready for the severe weather season

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what exactly is a king tide ?   and More Rain spells more mosquitoes and Ross River Fever

 

Current Weather Trends:

Short Term Weather/Month ahead

We are now in weakening La Nina with the last Monsoon due in mid March

February 23 to March 02

Drying out with possible Light coastal showers and Inland Trough systems  to deliver Light rain for South East Queensland

March  02 to March 09

Average to above average rain possible with trough systems  for South East Queensland

March 09 to March 16

Drying out with possible Light coastal showers and Inland Trough systems  to deliver Light rain for South East Queensland

March 16 to March 23

Average rain  for South East Queensland

March 23 to March 30

Average to above average Rain for South East Queensland

March 30 to April 6

Average to above average Rain for South East Queensland

 

 

Long Range Note: La Niña looks to repeat for next summer season with potentially a even stronger La Niña and this could mirror more accurately of what transpired back in 2011/2012, increased warming of waters in the coral sea is also noted. Trends for a La Niña or cool neutral winter and a negative IOD with Indian Ocean cooling.

 

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it’s flooded, forget it.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500

Handy Links & Moreton Bay Regional Council Advisories

Important Contacts and Links

Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region

Get Moreton Bay Regional Council : Moreton Alert

Life threatening emergencies: Triple Zero (000)

SES flood or storm assistance: 132 500

Council: (07) 3205 0555

Council local road conditions at council’s website

Unitywater: 1300 086 489

Energex: 13 62 62

Department of Main Roads

Parking vehicles under solid shelter, with the handbrake on and in gear

Putting wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in backyard pools or inside with other loose items

Drawing curtains and shutting doors

Packing a kit with essential medications, baby formula, nappies, valuables, important papers, photos, mementoes in waterproof bags, as part of emergency kits

Checking neighbours — especially new arrivals — are aware of the situation and are preparing

Remaining indoors with pets, not moving to public shelters unless advised by local authorities

Keeping a battery operated radio and Staying tuned to local radio 101.5 for further information

Plus Moreton Bay region Checklist:

  • Know the risks – think about the risks in your local area. How could a cyclone, severe storm, flood or bushfire impact you?
  • Prepare your family – prepare an emergency plan about how to respond to local risks, including an emergency kit of essential items including a torch, battery operated radio and spare food and water (for at least three days).
  • Prepare your property – check your gutters, roof, and insurance for house and other property. Get to know your neighbours and see if you can work together to get ready.
  • Stay alert – tune in to warnings with MoretonAlert (register at Moreton Alert or call council 3205 0555), listen to radio updates or log onto the Bureau of Metereology’s website.
  • Take action – activate your emergency plan, locate your emergency kit, secure loose items and if you are evacuating do so early and check road conditions before setting off.

For more information: https://getready.qld.gov.au/be-prepared and Moreton Bay Regional Council Disaster Portal

  • Re-check your property for any loose material and tie down (or fill with water) all large, relatively light items such as boats and rubbish bins.
  • Fill vehicles' fuel tanks.
  • Check your emergency kit and fill water containers.
  • Ensure household members know which is the strongest part of the house and what to do in the event of a cyclone warning or an evacuation.
  • Tune to your local radio/TV for further information and warnings.
  • Check that neighbours are aware of the situation and are preparing.

https://getready.qld.gov.au/be-prepared

Moreton Bay Regional Council new webpage official Sandbags Locator

If Its Flooded - Forget it !!

In the event of heavy rain falling, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.

Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.

Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.

No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.

Forward Projections

BOM forecasts wet autumn for some as La Niña weather system declines

The autumn outlook suggests there is a high likelihood of exceeding median rainfall on the east coast but conditions are expected to be more average or even below average in the west.(Bureau of Meteorology)

The much-discussed La Niña phenomenon has brought the best wet season for years in the Top End and a welcome change to rainier conditions for most of the country, but some still missed out this summer.

And the Bureau of Meteorology [BOM] autumn outlook is for wetter-than-average conditions in the east.

According to BOM climatologist Naomi Benger, La Niña will continue to wield influence into autumn even though it is weakening.

"The typical lifecycle of La Niña is that it decays through autumn," she said.

"We are expecting it to decay through early autumn, but we are still seeing quite strong signals in the atmosphere, even though some of the oceanic measurements are hinting towards the decay."

Hence, encouraging signs of rain in areas that need it.

"We are expecting above average rainfall in eastern and some northern parts, including those parts of Queensland that have missed out so far this year," Dr Benger said.

And cyclone season isn't over until the end of April.

Above-average minimum temperatures are expected to continue across most of the country, with the exception of central and western South Australia and south-eastern Western Australia.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be above average for the far north and south as well as the far west.

Bring on the wet

So far, La Niña's impact has fallen well short of infamous flood years like 2011 and 1974.

Summer still has a few days to go and, according to Dr Benger, rain has been above average for the nation as a whole and the highest seen since the summer of 2016-17.

The map shows rainfall anomalies for Australia in December 2020 and January 2021. Average to below areas can be seen around southern WA and Queensland.(Bureau of Meteorology)

Bushfire outlook

That was a sentiment echoed by John Bates, research director at the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.

The official autumn bushfire outlook, also released today, suggests most of the country can expect average fire conditions this autumn.

Fire conditions are expected to be normal for most of the country.(Bushfire and natural hazards CRC)

But according to Dr Bates the risk of grass and crop fires continues in the coming months, particularly where rain has created good growing conditions.

"Autumn will still see hot and windy days that raise the fire risk in some locations," he said.

Areas that have missed out on rain so far in Queensland are at above average risk.

"But when the weather conditions allow, the March to May period is a good time of year for prescribed burning," according to Dr Bates.

Maximum temperatures are expected to be average for much of continental Australia but above average around the coasts and for Tasmania.(Bureau of Meteorology)

"However, in northern Australia, the good wet season means that prescribed burning will be difficult in the coming months."

Notes

Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up.

Always monitor our Facebook page and listen on air on the FM band 101.5 Mhz or listen live via our website above.

Bureau Of Meteorology Cyclone Bulletin

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Current Cyclones impacting on South East Queensland

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