State Election 2020 : Key Marginal Local Seats to watch as well as others

There are three key seats in regional southern Queensland that will determine who wins the state election.

The electorates of Gaven, Pumicestone and Maryborough will be the most important to Labor in its quest to form government.

Those seats in particular Labor will be worried about,

The ALP can form government if it has the majority of the Brisbane seats and enough regional seats.

But with the possibility of Katter's Australia Party and One Nation polling strongly in the regions, the party may lose some seats in those areas and it will be keen to win other marginal seats.

Those electorates could be Caloundra and Glass House on the Sunshine Coast, and Bonney, Theodore, Burleigh and Currumbin on the Gold Coast, currently held by the LNP.

The Labor Party got a swing to it in the by-election at Currumbin and they've nominated Wayne 'Rabbit' Bartholomew as a high-profile candidate in Burleigh, so there are things to watch there,

Maryborough's sitting Labor member, Bruce Saunders, has a 2.5 per cent margin.

Maryborough is unique in all these electorates because the major contestant for the Labor Party will be One Nation and whether LNP preferences flow to One Nation,

The seat of Pumicestone, on the northern end of Moreton Bay, is held by the LNP by just 0.8 per cent.

It is an outer-Brisbane seat and is therefore one of those seats that will decide the election,

It's got the growing areas around Caboolture and the retirement havens around Bribie Island, so it's an electorate with two ends with different voting patterns.

In the end, issues don't decide elections — it's more about attitudes about the leaders and perceptions about whether the government's governed well or not.

Glass House

Margin: 3.4 per cent – LNP

Key issues: Unemployment, pandemic response

The electorate includes Mount Mee, Woodford, Beerburrum and Montville.

Glass House is a mixed rural-urban electorate north of Caboolture and covers most of the inland parts of the southern Sunshine Coast.

Current member Andrew Powell has held office since 2009, surviving a savage 19 per cent swing towards Labor in the 2015 election when the ALP's Brent Hampstead came close to winning the seat.

This will be Mr Hampstead's third attempt at the seat for the ALP.

He faces opposition from former police officer and One Nation candidate Graeme Campbell, with the party gaining traction in the electorate in 2017.

Full candidate profiles guide to Glass House

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.Graeme Campbell – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

2.James McDonald – Clive Palmer's UAP

3.Brent Hampstead – ALP

4.Andrew McLean – The Greens

5.* Andrew Powell – LNP

6.Laressa McCoy – Informed Medical Options Party


  • Margin: 0.8 per cent – LNP
  • Key issues: Pandemic response, unemployment

The electorate includes Bribie Island, Sandstone Point, Ningi, Beachmere and parts of Caboolture.

Pumicestone is one of the most marginal seats in the state after boundary changes in 2017.

And with current member Simone Wilson retiring after just one term, the 2020 result could go either way according to analysts.

The most northern of the Moreton Bay Regional Council electorates, Pumicestone has two distinct ends — the east includes the retirement haven of Bribie Island and mainland towns Sandstone Point and Ningi; in the west, parts of Caboolture north of the D'Aguilar Highway.

Full candidate profiles and guide to Pumicestone

Ballot order:

1.Ryan Dryden – Legalise Cannabis Qld (Party)

2.Ali King – ALP

3.Steven Newbery – Clive Palmer's UAP

4.Fiona Gaske – LNP

5.Richard Ogden – The Greens

6.Ross Konowalenko – Pauline Hanson's One Nation


Margin: 1.7 per cent – LNP

Key issues: Crime, unemployment, design of the second M1, traffic

Almost 7,000 new voters have moved into Bonney since the 2017 poll, when Sam O'Connor secured victory in the newly created electorate.

Bonney is one of the LNP's most marginally held seats and population changes could tip the balance between the major parties.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Clive Palmer's UAP did not field candidates at the last election.

Pre-polling could also have a strong effect in the seat — just over half of all votes were cast on polling day in 2017.

Labor recorded a 51.3 per cent majority for election day, however the LNP recorded majorities at the big pre-poll voting centres and among postal votes.

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.Leana Marquet Independent

2.* Sam O'Connor – LNP

3.Ash Borg – ALP

4.David Bark – Clive Palmer's UAP

5.Michael Rix – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

6.Amin Javanmard – The Greens


Margin: 4.9 per cent – LNP

Key issues: Transport, light rail, development, affordability, environment

The ALP has recruited celebrity candidate and former surfing professional Wayne "Rabbit" Bartholomew to challenge three-term LNP MP Michael Hart.

Mr Hart won the seat on his third attempt in 2012 with a margin of almost 5 per cent, however there was a 0.6 per cent swing against him at the last election.

Burleigh was the Greens' most successful Gold Coast seat in 2017, taking 16.1 per cent of the vote.

If the Greens direct preferences towards Labor, and Mr Bartholomew's celebrity draws votes, it will be a tight contest between the major parties.

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.Georgie Batty – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

2.Scott Wallace – Animal Justice Party

3.* Michael Hart – LNP

4.Ingrid Weber – Legalise Cannabis Qld (Party)

5.Rachel Mebberson – The Greens

6.Carlo Filingeri – Clive Palmer's UAP

7.Wayne (Rabbit) Bartholomew – ALP


Margin: 3.4 per cent – LNP

Key issues: Bruce Highway congestion, public transport, employment, infrastructure at Aura

This once-safe LNP seat is up for grabs with the retirement of long-serving member Mark McArdle.

Mr McArdle increased his majority at each election since winning the seat in 2004 except in 2017, when Labor recorded a 17.4 per cent swing.

It leaves new LNP candidate Stuart Coward with a tricky 3.4 per cent margin to defend, with Labor candidate Jason Hunt confident of gaining ground.

Pre-polling could prove crucial — just under half of all votes were cast on polling day in 2017.


Ballot order:

1.Raelene Ellis – The Greens

2.Mike Jessop – Independent

3.Belinda Hart – Informed Medical Options Party

4.Luke Poland – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

5.Mathew Hill – Independent

6.Stuart Coward – LNP

7.Trevor Gray – Clive Palmer's UAP

8.Jason Hunt – ALP


Margin: 3.3 per cent – LNP

Key issues: Transport, traffic congestion, the M1, environment, employment

The LNP has held Currumbin since Jann Stuckey won it in 2004, but Labor has been chipping away at the margins since 2012.

The seat was thrust into the limelight in January when Ms Stuckey resigned, citing an ongoing battle with depression and accusing parts of her party of vilifying her for having backed abortion law reform.

Laura Gerber retained the seat for the LNP at the March by-election despite a 2.1 per cent swing to Labor's Kaylee Campradt, who is returning to contest this month's poll.

Adding interest are the nominations of Ms Stuckey's husband, Richard, as an independent, and Anna Palmer, wife of Clive Palmer and deputy leader of his United Australia Party.

One Nation will also be hoping to claw back the support it lost in 2017 when its candidate withdrew after just one day after he was asked by the party to remove an offensive social media post.

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.Tracy Takacs-Thorne Independent

2.Richard Stuckey – Independent

3.Peter Burgoyne – The Greens

4.Kaylee Campradt – ALP

5.* Laura Gerber – LNP

6.Glen Wadsworth – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

7.Anna Palmer – Clive Palmer's UAP

8.Ian Logan – Independent


Margin: 0.7 per cent – ALP

Key issues: Traffic, the M1, population

Gaven is Labor's only Gold Coast seat, held by one of the smallest margins in the state.

The narrow victory was secured courtesy of one of the largest swings (3.5 per cent) to the ALP in 2017.

Meaghan Scanlon had a competitive primary vote of 43.1 per cent and was assisted by preferences from Greens candidate Sally Spain, who is standing again this year.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation did not run a candidate in Gaven in 2017, but it has recruited Nerang business owner Sharon Sewell to contest this year.

Adding further unpredictability to Gaven is the electorate's population growth, with the addition of almost 5,000 new voters since the last election.

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.Sharon Sewell – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

2.* Meaghan Scanlon – ALP

3.Suzette Luyken – Legalise Cannabis Qld (Party)

4.Reyna Drake – Civil Liberties & Motorists Party

5.Garry Beck – Clive Palmer's UAP

6.Kirsten Jackson – LNP

7.Sally Spain – The Greens


Margin: 2.5 per cent – ALP

Key issues: Unemployment, manufacturing, pandemic response

Known as the Heritage City, Maryborough is the second oldest settlement in Queensland after Brisbane and has existed as an electorate since 1865.

It is a seat that has been represented by five political parties and two independents in the past three decades.

The ALP's Bruce Saunders surprised many, including his own party, when he won the seat in 2015 with a 2 per cent swing against the LNP.

Mr Saunders was re-elected in 2017 with a 20.2 per cent swing in his favour at an election in which the Labor vote stalled or went backwards in most country seats.

The Greens' Craig Armstrong is having his second crack at the seat after securing just 3.5 per cent of the vote in 2017.

One Nation is fielding former grazier Sharon Lohse, while Clive Palmer's father-in-law, Alex Sokolov, is running for the UAP.

The Informed Medical Options Party and Legalise Cannabis Qld are also running in this seat for the first time.

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.* Bruce Saunders – ALP

2.Samantha Packer – Informed Medical Options Party

3.Alex Sokolov – Clive Palmer's UAP

4.Denis Chapman – LNP

5.Sharon Lohse – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

6.River Body – Legalise Cannabis Qld (Party)

7.Craig Armstrong – The Greens


Margin: 3.7 per cent – LNP

Key issues: Crime, employment, M1 congestion, the Coomera Connector, population growth

The Oxenford-centred seat of Theodore was first contested at the 2017 election, drawing voters from the abolished seat of Albert and sections of Coomera and Gaven.

Former Albert MP Mark Boothman won with a 3.7 per cent margin, which could lift this year as he was not known in some parts of the electorate in 2017.

Theodore recorded a high number of informal votes last time around and confusion around compulsory preferential voting could again come into play.

So too could pre-poll and postal votes — in 2017, the LNP recorded just 50.4 per cent of the vote on election day but picked up 58.6 per cent of pre-polls and 61.7 per cent with postals.

Clive Palmer's United Australia Party is fielding a candidate, Robert Marks, for the first time.

The electorate takes in one of the region's major growth corridors, with Labor hoping the changing population will tip the balance its way.

Ballot order (* incumbent):

1.Tracey Bell – ALP

2.* Mark Boothman – LNP

3.John Woodlock – The Greens

4.Anita Holland – Pauline Hanson's One Nation

5.Robert Marks – Clive Palmer's UAP

6.Gale Oxenford – Independent


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