Finance week ahead: Share market set for Easter breather on little data

It's all quiet on the Easter front as the market takes a breather during the shortened week.

Local data releases are a bit light on, with perhaps the home value index from CoreLogic/RP data the highlight.

The February figures showed the Sydney market stalling, while Melbourne picked up the mantle of the capital city with the fast annual property price growth.

Capital Economics analyst Paul Dale said daily data so far suggest that prices rose by around 0.8 per cent in March which, after seasonal adjustment, would equate to a small decline.

The weekly consumer confidence survey from ANZ and Roy Morgan may pick up on the early election chatter from last week, although the general feeling may be a resounding "whatever".

Manufacturing will have its pulse taken in the monthly Australian Industry Group survey.

It has been robust, at the highest levels since late 2010, although the rising Australian dollar may take the edge off things a bit this time around.

US jobs and Chinese manufacturing

Overseas is similarly quiet, with US jobs and housing and Chinese manufacturing the notable features.

The key number of the week will be US non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Already the betting is starting to shorten on another US rate rise in April and a big number – somewhere north of 250,000 – will put a bit more pressure on the Fed to move.

However, RBC's capital markets team said it expects employment growth to decelerate a touch to around 185,000 new jobs after a very lofty increase in February.

"That said, job openings remain high – greater than 5 million – and (unemployment) claims remain near all-time lows ... suggesting that trend payrolls near 200,000 should be feasible in the near term," RBC added.

In China, both the official National Bureau of Statistics and unofficial Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes are out on Friday, and both are expected to show a continuation of contracting activity.

February data showed Chinese factories had been stuck in reverse for seven consecutive months with worrying declines in the key measures of output, new orders and employment.

Another poor reading may prompt the Peoples' Bank of China to ease again to keep the Government's 6.5 to 7 per cent GDP growth target for this year in sight.

Finance diary


Day Event Notes
Monday 28/3/16 Easter Monday  
Tuesday 29/3/16    
Wednesday 30/3/16 Consumer confidence Weekly figure. Impact of election talk?
Thursday 31/3/16

Private sector credit

New home sales

Feb: Up around 6.5% YoY

Feb: HIA series, may drop after solid January

Friday 1/4/16

Home value index


Mar: CoreLogic/RP Data series

Mar: Ai Group survey. Has been at 5 year highs


Day Event Notes
Monday 28/3/16

US: Trade

US: Personal income

Feb: Advanced estimate, $US60b deficit forecast

Feb: Contains "core personal consumption deflator" a favourite number of the Fed

Tuesday 29/3/16 US: Home prices Jan: A rise of around 5.6% YoY forecast
Wednesday 30/3/16

US: Employment

US: Oil and gasoline stocks

Mar: Another 190,000 expected to be added

Mar: Key numbers for oil price

Thursday 31/3/16    
Friday 1/4/16

US: Non-farm payrolls

US: Construction spending

CH: Manufacturing

Mar: Another 200,000+ increase forecast

Feb: May be slower than previous reading, but still growing

Mar: Official and unofficial PMIs should still show contraction

Source: ABC News

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