Deep Low on its way, what does this mean for the Moreton Bay Region ? – Daily analysis
As Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie breaks up what is left is a whole lot instability and rain and for the next week the Moreton Bay Region could experience higher then expected rain and wind.
Forward projections indicate the deep low will bring with it heavy rain estimated up to 100+ mm of rain over Thursday, Friday and Saturday and possible gale force winds, Also the Moreton Bay Region could see sustained 45 km/h winds over the next few days.
As the system continues moving south it could bring major flooding to Ayr, and towns along the NSW border, as well as areas further inland. later in the week where there is a current flood watch stretching 1300 Kms.
Damaging winds are also a possibility for this region, particularly coastal parts
Areas around the southeast coast, such as Brisbane, Moreton Bay Region and the Sunshine Coast, could see falls between 50mm to 150mm in the next four days,
Click here for Explanatory Notes
The Insurance Council of Australia has declared Debbie a ‘catastrophe’ and thousands of claims are expected.
QFES Commissioner Katarina Carroll said there were concerns the water mass could reach southeast Queensland as the low moves further south.
“We still have concerns about the weather as we still have considerable rain coming, 150-200mm in some areas and that brings with it flooding,” she said.
“At the moment we think it could head down to the southeast along with a lot of rain in the next few days.”
Low flow releases from Somerset Dam are planned while Wivenhoe Lake level rise less then 0.5 m over 24 hours, all dams are being monitored frequently for any changes and releases may be necessary to preserve infrastructure. SEQ Water also advise flood releases from Wivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine are possible in coming days.
Moreton Bay Regional Council Staff are currently checking drains in the area.
In case you become separated from loved ones during an emergency, Red Cross manages Register.Find.Reunite, a national registration and enquiry service. When the service is activated, people can register at www.redcross.org.au or in person at an evacuation or relief centre. You can also use the website if you are unable to contact a loved one who may have been affected. People can also contact the police on their non-emergency number, 131 444.
Note this page will be updated frequently this week so please bookmark and refresh for the latest details as we have them
Moreton Bays Home of Emergency Services 101.5 FM will be On-Line, On-Mobile and On-Air 24 hours a day with updates to keep you informed and safe. Phone 5495 1015
Latest Weather Warnings
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast and parts of the Central West and Maranoa and Warrego Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:58 am Wednesday, 29 March 2017.
Headline:
Heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are currently affecting the Central Coast and Whitsundays and Central Highlands and Coalfields districts, slowly extending southwards.
Synoptic Situation:
At 11am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located over inland central Queensland about 130 kilometres west-northwest of Moranbah. The system is expected to continue moving southwards over the central interior of the state today before tracking southeastwards during Thursday.
Impacts:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie will continue to generate areas of very heavy rain over the Central Coast and Whitsundays and Central Highlands and Coalfields districts today. Currently the heaviest rainfall is occurring over the areas between inland from Mackay. A seperate Severe Thunderstorm Warning is current for heavy rainfall for areas over the Central Coast district. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm are expected, with significantly higher totals possible locally. This rainfall will likely be very intense at times, leading to a risk of localised flash flooding. Locations that may be affected include Mackay, Sarina, Carmila, Yeppoon, Moranbah, Clermont, Emerald, Springsure and Rolleston.
The focus for heavy rain will then shift south and extend into the southeastern quarter of the state during Thursday, with further daily rainfall totals in excess of 200mm possible.
This rainfall is likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Ayr and the New South Wales border, extending inland to parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts.
Damaging winds, with peak gusts of around 100km/h, are occurring in the warning area, particularly about the coast and islands and also over higher ground inland. Currently the strongest wind gusts are affecting areas north of about Emerald to St Lawrence though the possibility of damaging wind gusts should shift to the remaining warning area as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie tracks south southeastwards tonight. Into Thursday the focus for damaging wind gusts will likely shift to the Capricornia coast and then possibly to the remaining coast near and south of Fraser Island during Thursday afternoon and evening.
Water levels on the high tide could exceed the highest tide of the year, but not exceed warning criteria. Therefore the warning for abnormally high tide is cancelled.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it’s flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Wind Warnings for Thursday 30 March
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Mackay Coast, Capricornia Coast, Hervey Bay, Fraser Island Coast, Sunshine Coast Waters, Moreton Bay and Gold Coast Waters
The Projected Heavy rain map
Tides and flooding
Tides at Beachmere are expected to peak on Monday and gradually ease in height.
High Tides:
Wednesday 10:33 am (2.42m), 11:01 pm (2.45m),
Thursday 11:15 am (2.33m), 11:45 pm (2.47m);
Friday 11:58 am (2.20m);
Saturday 12:32 am (2.44m), 12:46 pm (2.03m);
Sunday 1:23 am (2.38m), 1;40 pm (1.86m);
Monday 2:23 am (2.30m), 2:50 pm (1.74m);
Tuesday 3:32 am (2.23m), 4:14 pm (1.70m);
Wednesday 4:49 am (2.22m), 5:35 pm (1.77m);
Thursday 6:00 am (2.25m), 6:42 pm (1.90m);
Friday 7:00 am (2.30m), 7:32 pm (2.03m);
Windy TV Feed (Interactive)
Roads and Highways
Rule ONE If it’s flooded, forget it
Rule TWO … go back to Rule ONE, if there is no need to travel then stay home the last thing we need is tying up
the emergency services rescuing you when something more urgent is requiring their resources.
Transport Queensland Rail
Heads Up: Caboolture & Redcliffe Line Closures Monday 27 and Tuesday 28th
Normal for remainder of the week
Power Supplies
Normal
Should you lose power or experiencing power supply issues then call 136262
Home preparation and supplies
There are things we can do while the weather is still good to prepare before a storm hits our Moreton Bay Region this includes getting your act together with supplies we have a helpful guide for the home and Your Emergency Kit.
Then there is preparation of your home preparation of your home.
How to keep your phone charged in a weather event or loss of power .
Need SANDBAGS, then get locations they are available Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region.
We must not forget How to keep your staff safe in a weather emergency.
We also have a general guide in preparation of you, your family, your neighbours and community at large found here.
Got a medical condition here is a guide.
Everyone should do this now:
* Keep gutters, downpipes and drains clear
* Remove tree branches that are close to your house
* Learn how to safely turn off your power, water and gas
* Keep water containers, camp stove and fuel safely on hand
* Have radio, torches ready with fresh batteries
* Do not use portable generators in enclosed spaces, they produce carbon monoxide a colourless and odourless gas that can that can cause incapacitation or death.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 50
Emergency information
Emergency contact
For storm and flood assistance contact the SES on 132 500 and in a life threatening emergency call Triple Zero.
Moreton Bay Regional Council Information
The Bureau is predicting wild weather in South-East Queensland in coming days.
Moreton Bay Regional Council is urging local residents to be storm ready with severe storms forecast to affect the region from Thursday through to the weekend.
Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be possible in South-East Queensland with the Bureau warning the worst-hit areas could also receive in excess of 200mm of rain per day.
Council is urging local residents to be storm ready:
Charge your mobile phone to stay in touch with friends, family and online media updates.
Program your battery-operated radio to stay tuned for local weather updates.
Consider your need to travel on roads or public transport during the severe periods of the storm, and delay travel where possible.
Ensure roof gutters are clear and can handle heavy rainfall.
Have a torch handy should there be any loss of power.
Disconnect unneeded electrical appliances
Secure loose outdoor items around your home.
Shelter and secure pets and animals.
Weather warnings
Stay tuned to local media outlets for the latest weather updates, and visit BoM’s website to monitor your local conditions, including weather radar images, rainfall gauge and river height information: www.bom.gov.au/qld
Flood maps
Council encourages people to be aware of the potential impact of heavy rainfall around their property. Flood maps are available for download from council’s website with handy hints on how to be storm-ready. More info at https://www.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/floodcheck/.
SES Assistance
Storms can be a busy time for the SES. Only call the SES in emergency situations on 132 500.
Free Sand and Sandbags
Sandbag locations in the region include:
-Arana Hills – Arana Hills SES, 2 Pine Hills Drive (off Jinker Track), Arana Hills;
-Beachmere – Rogers Street Sports Ground, Rogers Street, Beachmere;
-Bribie Island – Bribie Island SES, 208-224 First Avenue, Bribie Island;
-Caboolture – Caboolture Council Depot Car Park (opposite depot), Commercial Drive at Machinery Parade intersection, Caboolture;
-Deception Bay – Deception Bay Council Depot carpark, Old Bay Road, Deception Bay;
-Elimbah – Opposite the church in the median strip, Coronation Drive, Elimbah;
-Margate – Opposite Council Depot, Jull Street, Margate;
-Narangba – Oakey Flat Road, Between Raynbird Road roundabout and Sovereign Drive roundabout, Narangba;
-Petrie – Petrie SES, 3 Woonara Drive, Petrie;
-Toorbul – Toorbul Community and Sports Centre/Toorbul and Donnybrook Pensioners Club, 1774 Pumicestone Road, Toorbul;
-Woodford – Woodford Council Depot, Mary Street, Woodford;
-Woodford – Woodford Memorial Hall (rear car park), 109 Archer Street, Woodford.
Sandbags will not stop flood waters entirely. However, suitable placement of correctly filled bags may reduce the amount of water that enters your property.
Driving and Road Conditions
With rain forecast across the weekend council reminds motorists to take it easy on our roads and allow extra travel time. Most importantly – IF IT’S FLOODED, FORGET IT
A list of road closures in the region can be found at https://www.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/roads/road-conditions/. This list is updated frequently during major weather events.
School closures
http://closures.det.qld.gov.au/
Useful Links
Bureau Of Meteorology Satellite tracker
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Explanatory Notes
Debbie has been downgraded to a tropical low but still carries sustained winds near the centre of 55km/h and wind gusts up to 120km/h.
Significant flood modeling will be completed on Wednesday morning to determine what areas are at most risk of flooding.
BOM forecaster David Crock said ex-Cyclone Debbie was continuing to weaken and would move fairly quickly to the south-east by tomorrow.
Brisbane and surrounds could receive up to 200mm in 24 hours, with the worst of it Thursday night. The monthly March average is 138mm.
The falls will not be enough for a repeat of the 2011 Brisbane River flood.
“We have had quite a dry summer, so there isn’t a build-up of moisture in the catchments to allow that,” he said.
“It is a quite a different set-up.
“We don’t have that an upper trough which sat above us [in 2010-2011] for a couple of days which provided a lot of rain.
Water Supply Minister Mark Bailey said the Wivenhoe and Somerset dams would be released in preparation. They are currently at 74 per cent and 68 per cent capacity.
The tropical low will move offshore on Friday, according to forecasters.
An upper trough will move in over the top, intensifying the system in the Tasman Sea, but it will not reform into a cyclone.
The system could, however, generate gusts of up to 100kph and dangerous surf.
On Wednesday morning BOM Forecaster James Taylor says Around the ex-tropical cyclone, we’re thinking around 150-250 millimetres per day close to the path of where the ex-tropical cyclone moves, so that means the current severe weather warning will likely be extended either later today or into tomorrow down into the south-eastern corner of Queensland where the path should take a south-east wards track and then it looks like it will move out across Brisbane area overnight Thursday night into Friday and then into the Tasman Sea, so that creates a heavy rainfall and potentially damaging winds issue down through that highly populated part of Queensland layer — later in the week with a clearing trend on the weekend.
Added to the mix is a cold front from South Australia and Victoria which is expected to meet this instability around South East Queensland by Friday as this happens we can expect a drop of 10 degrees with the cold front.
As the system continues moving south it could bring major flooding to Ayr, and towns along the NSW border, as well as areas further inland. later in the week where there is a current flood watch stretching 1300 Kms.
Damaging winds are also a possibility for this region, particularly coastal parts
Areas around the southeast coast, such as Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, could see falls between 50mm to 150mm in the next four days,
The BOM suggests models show several scenarios taking this rain depression following a path to South East Queensland going out to sea and on to New Zealand taking with it the rain or it could park it self over South East Queensland held in position by a High over the Tasman sea and develop in to a destructive East Coast Low affecting both South East Queensland and New South Wales for days
Should it pass through out to see we could experience 50 mm + per day or if it parks it self we could experience far greater falls sustained for days
These projections will be reviewed every few hours so that Moreton Bay Region and South East Queensland residents are fully informed ahead of any pending weather adverse effects.