Federal Election 2016: The National Seats we will be watching on July 2
The Prophet and the News team have compiled a list of seats that may well determine who wins Government and possibly what shape that Government will take.
In 2016 new Senate voting rules apply, elections have of late routinely changed Governments and with in those Governments leaders too have changed just as routinely.
Will this be the beginning of stability or just more of the revolving door.
Will we have a minority government or one that has a third force acting as a balance of power not just in the Senate but in the House Of Representatives as well.
These questions will be answered after 6 pm on July 2 with comprehensive coverage of Election night from 6 pm live on air 101.5 FM and streaming right around Moreton Bay and the world you can listen live on our website.
What we know:
23 members of the House of representatives have declared their intention to retire including Bronwyn Bishop and Clive Palmer. 150 House of Representatives and 76 Senate Seats are all up for grabs
The last double dissolution held was in 1987 when Bob Hawke was Prime Minister, 6 double dissolution elections in Australia the last one 29 years ago
Labor must claw back 21 extra electorates to reclaim government
13 Seats would put the Coalition into Minority government - 17 Seats would see Labor able to claim minority Government
Since this list is in depth you may click on any of the following links to get to the section you want to view, at the bottom of each section is a Go to the Top link clicking that will bring you back here
Grayndler (NSW), Indi (Vic), Melbourne Ports (Vic), Batman (Vic), Burt (WA), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Moreton (QLD), New England (NSW), Sydney (NSW), Bass (TAS), Braddon (TAS), Lyons (TAS), Hindmarsh (SA), Mayo (SA), Corangamite (VIC), Capricornia (QLD), Bendigo (VIC), Solomon (NT), Lingiari (NT), Brisbane (QLD), Dobell (NSW) **, Paterson (NSW) **, Barton (NSW) **,
** indicated that these three seats won by the Liberal Party in 2013 that have become notional Labor seats on the new electoral boundaries.
Grayndler (NSW) ALP 18.8%
The prophet puts this seat as the most interesting seat with an arguably its relative safe seat status Grayndler (NSW) held by with a margin ALP 18.8% except that there are rumblings so much so that there there was a save our albo campaign against a resurgent Greens campaign in the electorate.
The Division of Grayndler is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1949 and is named for Edward Grayndler (1867–1943), a Member of the New South Wales Legislative Council from 1921 to 1934 and 1936 to 1943, and General Secretary of the Australian Workers' Union from 1912 to 1941.
At 32 square kilometres (12 sq mi), it is one of Australia's smallest electorates, located in the inner-southern Sydney metropolitan area, including parts of the inner-west. The electorate includes the suburbs of Annandale, Ashfield, Dulwich Hill, Canterbury, Enmore, Haberfield, Hurlstone Park, Leichhardt, Marrickville, Newtown, Petersham, Stanmore and Summer Hill.
The current Member for Grayndler, since the 1996 federal election, is Anthony Albanese, a member of the Australian Labor Party. Following the 2013 election, the division is the safest two-party Labor seat in Australia, with a swing of over 20 percent required for the Liberals to win it.
|Area||32 km2 (12.4 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Grayndler|
|Christian Democrats||Joshua Green||1,828||2.05||+2.05|
|Palmer United||Mohanadas Balasingham||1,522||1.71||+1.71|
|Bullet Train||Joel Scully||1,171||1.32||+1.32|
|Total formal votes||89,009||93.00||+0.08|
Indi (Vic) IND 0.3% v LIB
The Seat of Indi in Victoria is interesting not just with its margin of 0.3% but the very public feud between former member Sophie Mirabella and the Liberal Party over funding hospitals before the last election which she lost and is contesting again for the Liberal party currently held by an independent Cathy McGowan
The Division of Indi is an Australian Electoral Division in northeastern Victoria. The largest settlements in the division are the regional cities of Wodonga, Wangaratta, and Benalla. Other towns in the electorate include Rutherglen, Mansfield, Beechworth, Myrtleford, Bright, Alexandra, Tallangatta, Corryong and a number of other small villages (notably including the ski resort of Falls Creek). While Indi is one of the largest electorates in Victoria, much of it is located within the largely uninhabited Australian Alps. While Wodonga serves as a regional hub for much of the more heavily populated northern part of the electorate, the southern part is closer to Melbourne than Wodonga.
Indi has existed continuously since Federation. It was created in 1900 and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. The most nationally prominent person to represent Indi to date was the first, Sir Isaac Isaacs, who rose to become Attorney-General of Australia, Chief Justice of the High Court of Australia, and the first Australian-born Governor-General of Australia. Another member for Indi, John "Black Jack" McEwen, was a long-serving Minister and was briefly Prime Minister of Australia after the death of Harold Holt in 1967, but he was member for Murray by then. Indi has been held by a member of a conservative party (either the Liberal Party and its predecessors or the National Party) or a conservative independent for all but four terms since Federation, and without interruption since 1931. Labor last won the seat in 1928 when the Country incumbent forgot to renominate. Since 2004, the Liberal primary vote has been in decline, falling from 63% in 2004, to 54% in 2007, 53% in 2010 and 45% in 2013.
The current member for Indi since the 2013 election is independent Cathy McGowan. McGowan defeated Liberal Party incumbent Sophie Mirabella, the only incumbent Liberal MP to lose their seat at the 2013 election.
|Namesake||Murray River (Aboriginal name)|
|Area||28,567 km2 (11,029.8 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Indi|
|Palmer United||Robert Murphy||2,417||2.71||+2.71|
|Sex Party||Helma Aschenbrenner||1,402||1.57||+1.57|
|Family First||Rick Leeworthy||1,330||1.49||−2.24|
|Rise Up Australia||Robert Dudley||985||1.11||+1.11|
|Katter's Australian||Phil Rourke||615||0.69||+0.69|
|Bullet Train||William Hayes||489||0.55||+0.55|
|Total formal votes||89,043||94.91||−1.18|
|Independent gain from Liberal||Swing||N/A|
Melbourne Ports (Vic) ALP 3.6%
Melbourne Ports (Vic) is one of those seats where a growing Greens support base has been steady in recent years with a margin of 3.6% and currently held by Labor's Michael Danby
The Division of Melbourne Ports is an Australian federal electoral division in the inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. It is located to the south of Melbourne's central business district and covers an area of approximately 40 km2 around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay.
The electorate was created at the time of Australian Federation in 1901 and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named for the fact that at the time of its creation it was centred on Port Melbourne and Williamstown, both major ports.
The electorate, formerly working class, is much more demographically diverse on its current boundaries, with rapidly accelerating inner-city gentrification and high-density housing developments in recent years. It still includes Port Melbourne, but now also includes a number of middle and upper middle class suburbs such as Albert Park, Balaclava, Caulfield, Elwood, Middle Park, Ripponlea, South Melbourne and St Kilda. It is the home of one of Australia's larger atheist communities and according to 2006 census, this electorate has 23.2% No Religion, 18.8% Catholic, 12.7% Jewish, 10.8% Anglican, 11.7% Other Christian, 5.9% Other Religions, and 16.9% not stated. It also has a large gay and lesbian community.
Melbourne Ports has been held by the Australian Labor Party since 1906. Originally, it was anchored in the industrial suburbs in the west of the electorate, which are part of Labor's heartland in west Melbourne. On those boundaries, for decades it was one of the safest Labor seats in the country. Since its extension eastwards to Caulfield and other Liberal-voting areas in the 1990 redistribution, it has become much less secure for Labor. Continuing the gradual downwards trend in the Labor primary vote, in the 2013 election, Labor was returned with a primary vote of less than 32 percent.
It has been held by only five men since 1906, most notably Jack Holloway, a minister in the Curtin government, Frank Crean, Treasurer in the Whitlam government, and Clyde Holding, a minister in the Hawke government.
|Area||40 km2 (15.4 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Melbourne Ports|
|Sex Party||Melissa Star||3,089||3.81||+1.59|
|Palmer United||Toby Stodart||1,122||1.38||+1.38|
|Democratic Labour||Vince Stefano||540||0.67||+0.67|
|Family First||Robert Keenan||490||0.60||−0.14|
|Stable Population||Steven Armstrong||324||0.40||+0.40|
|Rise Up Australia||Margaret Quinn||201||0.25||+0.25|
|Total formal votes||81,073||96.18||−0.59|
Batman (Vic) (10.6 v GRN) ALP 21.0%
Batman (Vic) is a Labor held seat held by David Feeney (10.6 v GRN) ALP 21.0%, the interesting thing about this seat according to the Prophet is that the Greens are a very real threat to take this seat from Labor.
The Division of Batman is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of Victoria. The division was created in 1906, replacing the Division of Northern Melbourne. It takes its name from John Batman, one of the founders of the city of Melbourne.
The division is located in Melbourne's northern suburbs. It covers an area of approximately 66 square kilometres (25 sq mi) from Thomastown/Bundoora in the north to Clifton Hill in the south, with Merri Creek providing the vast majority of the western boundary and Darebin Creek, parts of Macleod and Plenty Road in Bundoora providing the eastern boundary. The suburbs of Alphington, Clifton Hill, Fairfield, Kingsbury, Northcote, Preston, Reservoir, and Thornbury; and parts of Bundoora, Coburg North, Macleod, and Thomastown are in this division.
The current Member for Batman, since the 2013 federal election, is David Feeney, a member of the Australian Labor Party.
|Area||66 km2 (25.5 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Batman|
|Sex Party||Lianna Sliwczynski||2,301||2.58||+2.48|
|Palmer United||Franco Guardiani||2,253||2.53||+2.53|
|Animal Justice||Rosemary Lavin||1,250||1.40||+1.40|
|Family First||Ken Smithies||1,126||1.26||−1.92|
|Rise Up Australia||Pat Winterton||1,121||1.26||+1.26|
|Total formal votes||89,114||94.24||−0.74|
Burt (WA) New seat Notionally LIB 6.1%
The Division of Burt is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of Western Australia. The division was created in 2015 and was named after the Burt family, specifically Sir Archibald Burt, Septimus Burt and Sir Francis Burt. The division is located in the south-eastern suburbs of Perth which had been represented by the divisions of Canning, Hasluck and Tangney respectively.
The seat is currently vacant and will not elect its inaugural member until the next election which will be held on 2 July. Based on the results from the 2013 federal election the division is notionally fairly safe Liberal with an estimated two-party preferred margin of 6.1 percent. Based on WA federal polling indicating a large nine percent two-party swing to Labor since the last election, several WA seats including Burt would be won by Labor at the 2016 federal election.
The seat presently comprises considerable portions of the City of Gosnells and the City of Armadale and portion of the City of Canning. Suburbs presently included are:
Armadale (part), Brookdale, Camillo, Canning Vale, Champion Lakes, Forrestdale, Gosnells (part), Harrisdale, Haynes, Hilbert (part), Huntingdale, Kelmscott, Langford, Piara Waters, Seville Grove, Southern River, Thornlie, Wungong (part).
|Namesake||Sir Archibald Burt, Septimus Burt and Sir Francis Burt|
|Electors||93,763 (1 December 2014)|
|Area||172 km2 (66.4 sq mi)|
Eden-Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) is a bellwether seat and is definitely one to watch.
The Division of Eden-Monaro is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1900, and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named for the town of Eden and the Monaro district of southern New South Wales.
Its boundaries have changed very little throughout its history, and it includes the towns of Yass, Bega and Cooma and the city of Queanbeyan. Until 1943 it was held by non-Labor parties for all but three years, but since then it has been consistently marginal. From 1972 it has been held by the government of the day, and is thus regarded as a "bellwether seat".
The Member for Eden-Monaro, since the 2013 federal election, is Peter Hendy, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.
|Namesake||Eden and Monaro|
|Area||29,499 km2 (11,389.6 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Eden-Monaro|
|Palmer United||Dean Lynch||4,655||5.21||+5.21|
|Christian Democrats||Warren Catton||861||0.96||+0.21|
|Stable Population||Martin Tye||601||0.67||+0.67|
|Total formal votes||89,313||94.46||+0.71|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+4.85|
Moreton (QLD) ALP 1.6%
The Seat of Moreton in Queensland is interesting as the Greens and the KAP are factoring heavily this time around according to the Prophet preferences will flow through to an eventual winner and this seat is a marginal by a factor of 1.6%.
The Division of Moreton is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. The division was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named after Moreton Bay, though successive redistributions have resulted in it no longer bordering the bay; it is now completely landlocked. Nonetheless, it has retained the name of Moreton, mainly because the Australian Electoral Commission's guidelines on electoral redistributions require it to preserve the names of original electorates where possible.
The seat was in the hands of the Liberal Party and its predecessors for 86 years before Labor regained it in 1990. From then until 2013, it was a bellwether seat, voting for the winning party in every election.
The seat is known for having decided the 1961 federal election. The Liberals only won the seat by 130 votes to give the Coalition a bare one-seat majority; had 93 Communist preferences gone the other way, it would have resulted in a hung parliament.
On its current boundaries, the seat is very multicultural, with a significant Asian, South Eastern European and African population living in the electorate.
|Area||111 km2 (42.9 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Moreton|
|Liberal National||Malcolm Cole||34,824||42.24||−1.16|
|Palmer United||Jeremy Davey||4,147||5.03||+5.03|
|Family First||Carolyn Ferrando||1,250||1.52||−1.92|
|Katter's Australian||Chris Mallcott||1,070||1.30||+1.30|
|Rise Up Australia||Bruce Fry||303||0.37||+0.37|
|Total formal votes||82,449||94.38||−0.77|
|Liberal National||Malcolm Cole||39,946||48.45||−0.42|
New England (NSW) NAT 19.6%
The Seat of New England is a seat of adversaries one being currently held by Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce famous for mud sucking creatures and Caaaarp outburst in parliament and former seat holder Tony Windsor who are neck in neck in this current race.
The Division of New England is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division is located in the north-east of the state, adjoining the border with Queensland. The division was proclaimed in 1900, and was one of the original 75 divisions to be contested at the first federal election. It is named after the New England region in northern New South Wales.
The division includes such towns as Armidale, Ashford, Barraba, Bingara, Bundarra, Glen Innes, Gunnedah, Guyra, Inverell, Manilla, Quirindi, Tamworth, Uralla, Werris Creek, Walcha and Tenterfield. The Division covers a largely rural area, with agriculture the main industry.
The current member since the 2013 federal election is Barnaby Joyce who currently serves as Deputy Prime Minister of Australia and leader of the National Party of Australia. Seat-level polling reveals Joyce and former independent member Tony Windsor are neck-and-neck in the lead-up to the 2016 election.
|Area||59,344 km2 (22,912.8 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: New England|
|Palmer United||Phillip Girle||4,746||5.20||+5.20|
|One Nation||Brian Dettmann||1,566||1.72||+0.85|
|Christian Democrats||Aaron Evans||1,496||1.64||+1.64|
|Total formal votes||91,289||93.95||−2.51|
|National gain from Independent||Swing||N/A|
Sydney (NSW) ALP 12.9%
The Division of Sydney is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division draws it name from Sydney, the most populous city in Australia, which itself was named after former British Home Secretary Thomas Townshend, 1st Viscount Sydney. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 21 November 1968, replacing the old Division of East Sydney and Division of West Sydney, and was first contested at the 1969 election.
The division is located around the City of Sydney, and includes many inner suburbs such as Alexandria, Balmain, Beaconsfield, Birchgrove, Broadway, Chippendale, Darlington, Erskineville, Forest Lodge, Glebe, Haymarket, Millers Point, Pyrmont, Redfern, Rosebery, The Rocks, Ultimo, Waterloo, Zetland and parts of Annandale, Camperdown, Newtown, Rozelle, Surry Hills and the generic locality of Kings Cross which incorporates parts of the localities of Darlinghurst, Potts Point and Woolloomooloo. Lord Howe Island, within the Tasman Sea and some 400 kilometres (250 mi) north-east of the Sydney central business district, is located within the division; as are the harbour islands from Spectacle Island to the Sydney Heads, and all the waters of Port Jackson, except for Middle Harbour and North Harbour. Thee current Member for the Division of Sydney, since the 1998 federal election, is Tanya Plibersek, a member of the Australian Labor Party and the current Deputy Leader of the Opposition.
|Area||91 km2 (35.1 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Sydney|
|Palmer United||Tim Kelly||1,261||1.43||+1.43|
|Bullet Train||Leah Gartner||791||0.90||+0.90|
|Christian Democrats||Lesley Mason||723||0.82||+0.82|
|Socialist Alliance||Peter Boyle||613||0.70||+0.70|
|Total formal votes||88,151||93.80||−0.70|
Bass (TAS) LIB 4.0%
The Division of Bass is an Australian electoral division in Tasmania. The division was one of the five established when the former Division of Tasmania was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named for the explorer George Bass. It has always been based on the city of Launceston and surrounding rural areas, and its boundaries have changed very little in the century since its creation. For most of its history it has been a marginal seat, changing hands between the Australian Labor Party and the conservative parties—since 1949 the Liberal Party. Its most notable member has been Lance Barnard, who was Deputy Prime Minister in the Whitlam Government. His resignation in 1975 was followed by Labor's heavy defeat in the Bass by-election, which is seen as the beginning of the end of the Whitlam government.
|Area||7,378 km2 (2,848.7 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Bass|
|Palmer United||Chris Dobson||3,520||5.39||+5.39|
|Family First||Christine Bergman||1,407||2.15||+2.15|
|Total formal votes||65,344||95.82||−0.20|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+10.78|
Braddon (TAS) LIB 2.6%
The Division of Braddon is an Australian electoral division in the state of Tasmania. The division was created at the Tasmanian redistribution of 30 August 1955, essentially as a reconfigured version of the Division of Darwin. It is named for Sir Edward Braddon, a Premier of Tasmania and one of Tasmania's five original federal members of parliament.
Braddon is a rural electorate covering approximately 20,826 square kilometres (8,041 sq mi) in the north-western and west of Tasmania and includes King Island. The cities ofand are major population centres in the division. Other towns include , , , , , , , , , , , and .
The current Member for the Division of Braddon, since the 2013 federal election, is Brett Whiteley, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.
|Namesake||Sir Edward Braddon|
|Area||20,826 km2 (8,041.0 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Braddon|
|Palmer United||Kevin Morgan||6,125||9.29||+9.29|
|Rise Up Australia||Bernard Shaw||726||1.10||+1.10|
|Total formal votes||65,956||96.45||+0.77|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+10.04|
Lyons (TAS) LIB 1.2%
The Division of Lyons is an Australian electoral division in Tasmania. The division was created at the Federal redistribution of 12 September 1984 as a reconfigured version of the abolished Division of Wilmot. The name jointly honours Joseph Lyons, Prime Minister of Australia 1931–39, Member for Wilmot from 1929–39, and his wife Dame Enid Lyons, the first woman elected to the Australian House of Representatives in 1943 and subsequently the first female member of Cabinet (1949–51). Joseph Lyons had previously represented Wilmot at the state level from 1909 to 1929.
It is located in central Tasmania, stretching from the eastern to northern coast and includes such places as New Norfolk, Deloraine and St Marys, as well as the outer northern suburbs of Hobart. It has been a marginal seat, changing hands between the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal Party.
|Namesake||Joseph Lyons and Enid Lyons|
|Area||32,910 km2 (12,706.6 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Lyons|
|Palmer United||Quentin Von Stieglitz||4,697||7.03||+7.03|
|Family First||Gaye James||1,707||2.55||+2.55|
|Rise Up Australia||Julian Rogers||589||0.88||+0.88|
|Total formal votes||66,825||95.54||+0.34|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+13.51|
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9%
The Division of Hindmarsh is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia covering the western suburbs of Adelaide. The 78 km² seat includes the suburbs of Ascot Park, Brooklyn Park, Edwardstown, Fulham, Glenelg, Grange, Henley Beach, Kidman Park, Kurralta Park, Morphettville, Plympton, Richmond, Semaphore Park, Torrensville, West Beach and West Lakes. The seat has one of the highest proportions of citizens over the age of 65 in Australia. It has long been dominated by working-class families and aged pensioners, but it is now attracting new wealth to its seaside suburbs. The Adelaide Airport is centrally located in the electorate, and noise pollution is a prominent local issue, besides the aged care needs of the relatively elderly population.
The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was split on 2 October 1903 and is named after Sir John Hindmarsh, who was Governor of South Australia 1836-38. Prominent members for the electorate have included Norman Makin, who was Speaker in the Scullin government, and a cabinet minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, and Clyde Cameron, who was a cabinet minister in the Whitlam Government. For many years, it was one of the safest Labor seats in the country, and was in Labor hands for all but three years from the 1903 election to the 1993 election. Until 1949, Hindmarsh included most of what is now the safe Labor seat of Port Adelaide.
However, from 1983 onward, it became increasingly less safe for Labor. The boundaries of the seat changed dramatically over time as it moved further south and west. Cameron's successor, John Scott, retired after a redistribution prior to the 1993 election brought in most of the seaside suburbs that had previously been in nearby Hawker, including Glenelg. This reduced the Labor margin from an already marginal 5.3 percent two-party vote to a paper-thin one percent two-party vote. Liberal MP Christine Gallus, the former member for Hawker, won Liberal preselection in Hindmarsh for the 1993 election and subsequently won the seat on a two-party swing of two percent and a two-party margin of 51 percent, becoming only the second non-Labor MP to win it. She was reelected in 1996 on a swing of 6.4 percent, taking 58.6 percent of the two-party vote--technically making Hindmarsh a safe Liberal seat. This was the strongest result for a non-Labor candidate in the seat's history.
Gallus fended off spirited challenges from Labor's Steve Georganas in 1998 and 2001, winning each time with a margin of less than two percent. Gallus retired at the 2004 election, and Georganas won the seat on a razor-thin 0.06 percent margin from a one percent two-party swing. Georganas substantially increased his two-party margin above five percent at both the 2007 election and the 2010 election. Though Georganas of Greek descent was thought to have built up a base with the substantial Greek community in Hindmarsh, he was defeated at the 2013 election when Liberal Matt Williams became its third non-Labor member, and the first to oust a sitting Labor MP in the seat. Hindmarsh was the only seat in South Australia to change hands in 2013, and on a 1.9 percent two-party margin it is South Australia's most marginal seat. Labor's Georganas will attempt to defeat the Liberals' Williams at the 2016 federal election.
South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon confirmed in December 2014 that by mid-2015 the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) party would announce candidates in the South Australian Liberal seats of Hindmarsh, Sturt and Mayo, along with seats in all states and territories, and preference against the government in the upper house, at the 2016 federal election, with Xenophon citing the government's ambiguity on the Collins-class submarine replacement project as motivation. The NXT candidate in Hindmarsh is Daniel Kirk
|Namesake||Sir John Hindmarsh|
|Area||78 km2 (30.1 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Hindmarsh|
|Family First||Bob Randall||2,883||3.05||+0.06|
|Palmer United||George Melissourgos||2,332||2.47||+2.47|
|Democratic Labour||David McCabe||834||0.88||+0.88|
|Katter's Australian||Kym McKay||599||0.63||+0.63|
|Total formal votes||94,523||95.12||+0.38|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+7.97|
Mayo (SA) LIB 12.5%
The Division of Mayo is an Australian electoral division located in the East, South, South-East and South-West of Adelaide, South Australia. Established in the South Australian redistribution of 3 September 1984, the division is named after Helen Mayo, a social activist and the first woman elected to an Australian University Council. The 9,315 km² seat covers an area from Springton in the North to Goolwa in the South. It takes in the Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island, including the towns of Bridgewater, Crafers, Echunga, Gumeracha, Hahndorf, Kingscote, Langhorne Creek, Lobethal, Macclesfield, Mount Barker, Myponga, Oakbank, Stirling, Strathalbyn, Victor Harbor, Woodside, Yankalilla, and part of Birdwood.
At its creation, Mayo was a rural based electorate that stretched from the seaside town of Victor Harbor to the Adelaide Hills. Mayo was created as a Liberal seat on a notionally safe 12.3 per cent two-party margin. Liberal Alexander Downer, fifth and last of the Downer family dynasty, won Mayo for the Liberals at the inaugural 1984 election and would hold the seat for 24 years.
At the 1990 election, the Australian Democrats, who traditionally polled better in the area covered by Mayo than anywhere else in Australia, first revealed themselves as a real contender in that seat, polling a primary vote of 21.3 per cent from an increase of 11.7 per cent, coming third by just 2 per cent of the primary vote less than Labor. Then-Democrats leader Janine Haines chose to contest the neighbouring Division of Kingston at the 1990 election, obtaining a 26.4 per cent primary vote, but came third well behind the Liberals, with sitting Labor member Gordon Bilney retaining the seat. It was speculated at the time that if the high-profile Haines had contested Mayo instead, she may have been able to defeat Downer—presumably by gaining the additional 2 percent the Democrats needed to overtake Labor for second place, and defeat Downer on Labor preferences.
A redistribution following the 1990 election shifted Mayo to an exclusively Hills based seat, reducing the Liberal hold by 2 per cent to a notionally fairly safe 9.6 two-party margin, but was won at forthcoming elections on safe margins. At the 1998 election however, high-profile Democrats candidate John Schumann polled a primary vote of 22.4 per cent. He ended up with a two-candidate vote of 48.3 per cent, just 1.7 per cent (3,000 votes) short of taking the seat, transforming Mayo in to a marginal seat for the first time. However, on "traditional" two-party terms, it only edged from fairly safe to safe Liberal.
Another redistribution following the 1998 election made Mayo a notionally safe two-party Liberal seat with an extra 1 per cent added to the two-party margin. Downer would be comfortably returned in Mayo until his political retirement. At the 2001 election, Labor returned to second place after preferences. At the 2004 election, independent candidate Brian Deegan polled a 15 per cent primary vote, overtook Labor after preferences, and polled a 38.2 per cent two-candidate vote. Downer recorded his and Mayo's lowest winning two-party result at the 2007 election with a much reduced 7.1 per cent two-party margin after a 6.5 per cent two-party swing.
Downer retired from politics triggering a 2008 Mayo by-election. Labor opted not to run a candidate. The seat was retained by Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs on a 3 per cent two-candidate margin against the Greens, once again transforming Mayo in to a marginal seat. At the 2010 election, the seat was won by the Liberals on a fairly safe two-party margin for only the second time, before once again becoming a safe Liberal seat at the 2013 election.
South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon confirmed in December 2014 that by mid-2015 the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) would announce candidates in the South Australian Liberal seats of Hindmarsh, Sturt and Mayo, along with seats in all states and territories, and preference against the government in the Senate, at the 2016 election, with Xenophon citing the government's ambiguity on the Collins-class submarine replacement project as motivation. The NXT candidate in Mayo is former Briggs staffer Rebekha Sharkie who works with a wide range of organisations in the Adelaide Hills. Polling has indicated Briggs and Sharkie are neck-and-neck after preferences in Mayo in the lead-up to the 2016 election
|Area||9,315 km2 (3,596.5 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Mayo|
|Family First||Bruce Hicks||6,525||7.14||+1.39|
|Palmer United||Bikkar Singh Brar||3,434||3.76||+3.76|
|Total formal votes||91,410||96.13||+0.56|
Corangamite (VIC) LIB 3.9%
The Division of Corangamite is an Australian electoral division in the state of Victoria. The division was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named for Lake Corangamite.
The division is located in the Western district of Victoria covering 7,624 square kilometres (2,944 sq mi). It is a mixed electorate, including the growing surf coast area, the southern suburbs of Geelong as well as rural areas to the west. Starting at Queenscliff in the north, the electorate runs down the surf coast to include Aireys Inlet, Anglesea, Apollo Bay, Barwon Heads, Belmont, Grovedale, Highton, Lorne, Ocean Grove and Torquay. The electorate includes the rural centre of Colac, as well as all the suburbs of Geelong south of the Barwon River.
The current Member for Corangamite, since the 2013 federal election, is Sarah Henderson, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.
|Area||7,625 km2 (2,944.0 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Corangamite|
|Palmer United||Buddy Rojek||2,026||2.18||+2.18|
|Sex Party||Jayden Millard||1,726||1.86||+1.86|
|Family First||Peter Wray||908||0.98||−0.99|
|Country Alliance||Warren Jackman||408||0.44||+0.44|
|Rise Up Australia||Helen Rashleigh||273||0.29||+0.29|
|Total formal votes||92,801||95.57||−1.24|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+4.22|
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8%
The Division of Capricornia is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. The division was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named after the Tropic of Capricorn, which runs through the Division. It is located on the central Queensland coast and its centre has always been the city of Rockhampton. On its current boundaries it also includes the town of Yeppoon and the southern suburb of Mackay, Ooralea.
The first election saw Alexander Paterson, with 51% of votes, narrowly elected over the ALP candidate Wallace Nelson. For most of its subsequent history it has been a fairly safe seat for the ALP. However, it has fallen to the conservatives at high-tide elections. It is currently held by Michelle Landry for the Liberal National Party.
Its best-known member was Frank Forde, deputy leader of the Labor Party from 1932 to 1946, a minister in the Scullin, Curtin and Chifley governments, and Prime Minister of Australia in 1945
|Namesake||Tropic of Capricorn|
|Area||91,049 km2 (35,154.2 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Capricornia|
|Liberal National||Michelle Landry||33,608||39.58||−0.84|
|Palmer United||Derek Ison||6,747||7.95||+7.95|
|Katter's Australian||Robbie Williams||4,708||5.54||+5.54|
|Family First||Hazel Alley||3,274||3.86||+0.37|
|Rise Up Australia||Paul Lewis||439||0.52||+0.52|
|Total formal votes||84,913||94.85||+1.00|
|Liberal National||Michelle Landry||43,109||50.77||+4.45|
|Liberal National gain from Labor||Swing||+4.45|
Bendigo (VIC) ALP 1.3%
The Division of Bendigo is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of Victoria. The division was created in 1900 and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named for the city of Bendigo.
The division is situated on the northern foothills of the Great Dividing Range in North Central Victoria. It covers an area of approximately 6,255 square kilometres (2,415 sq mi) and provides the southern gateway to the Murray Darling Basin. In addition to the city of Bendigo, other large population centres in the division include Castlemaine, Heathcote, Kyneton and Woodend.
The current Member for the Division of Bendigo, since the 2013 federal election, is Lisa Chesters, a member of the Australian Labor Party.
|Area||6,255 km2 (2,415.1 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Bendigo|
|Palmer United||Anita Donlon||2,336||2.52||+2.52|
|Sex Party||Charlie Crutchfield||2,220||2.40||+2.40|
|Family First||Alan Howard||1,036||1.12||−2.98|
|Katter's Australian||Stephen Stingel||745||0.81||+0.81|
|Country Alliance||Rod Leunig||538||0.58||+0.58|
|Rise Up Australia||Sandra Caddy||499||0.54||+0.54|
|Total formal votes||92,519||94.29||−2.07|
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4%
The Division of Solomon is an Australian Electoral Division in the Northern Territory. It is largely coextensive with the Darwin/Palmerston metropolitan area. The only other division in the territory, the Division of Lingiari, covers the remainder of the territory.
The division was one of the two established when the former Division of Northern Territory was redistributed on 21 December 2000. It is named for Hon Vaiben Louis Solomon, a Premier of South Australia, a delegate to the second Constitutional convention and member of the first Australian Parliament. He represented the Northern Territory in the South Australian House of Assembly, when it was still part of that state.
The Division was first contested at the 2001 federal election. For most of its history, it has been a marginal seat. Although the Darwin-Palmerston area has historically been a stronghold for the Country Liberal Party at the territorial level, recent gains by Labor have made it much more competitive.
The CLP's David Tollner held the seat for its first two terms of existence before narrowly losing it to Labor's Damian Hale in 2007. At the 2010 election, the CLP's Natasha Griggs won the seat back for the Coalition with a 1.75 percent two-party margin, becoming the first opposition MP in the seat's history. Griggs was reelected in 2013 as the Coalition won government.
|Namesake||Vaiben Louis Solomon|
|Area||337 km2 (130.1 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Solomon|
|Country Liberal||Natasha Griggs||23,875||44.69||−1.68|
|Palmer United||Stephen Spain||2,691||5.04||+5.04|
|Sex Party||Krystal Metcalf||1,847||3.46||+3.46|
|Voluntary Euthanasia||Martin Burgess||597||1.12||+1.12|
|Rise Up Australia||Paul Sellick||527||0.99||+0.99|
|First Nations||Eileen Cummings||470||0.88||+0.88|
|Total formal votes||53,422||94.70||−0.24|
|Country Liberal||Natasha Griggs||27,461||51.40||−0.35|
|Country Liberal hold||Swing||−0.35|
Lingiari (NT) ALP 0.9%
The Division of Lingiari is an Australian electoral division in the Northern Territory. The division was one of the two established when the former Division of Northern Territory was redistributed on 21 December 2000. It covers almost the entire Territory—except for the area around Darwin, which is covered by the Division of Solomon—an area of 1,347,849 square kilometres (520,407 sq mi). It is the second largest electorate in terms of area in Australia, the largest being the Division of Durack in Western Australia, and the third largest single-member electorate in the world. The division also includes the Christmas and Cocos (Keeling) Islands. For its entire existence, it has been held by Warren Snowdon of the Australian Labor Party, who transferred there after the Division of Northern Territory was abolished.
The division was named after prominent Aboriginal rights activist Vincent Lingiari AM (1908–1988), who was a member of the Gurindji nation. The only other divisions named after Aboriginal Australians are Bennelong in New South Wales, and Blair and Bonner in Queensland.
At the time of the 2004 election, there were 58,205 people enrolled to vote in Lingiari, making it one of the least populous divisions in Australia. It has the largest indigenous population in Australia; as of the 2013 election, 42.7 percent of the population was indigenous.
|Area||1,352,371 km2 (522,153.4 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Lingiari|
|Country Liberal||Tina MacFarlane||17,593||38.23||+3.97|
|Palmer United||Trevor Hedland||1,918||4.17||+4.17|
|First Nations||Kenny Lechleitner||1,340||2.91||+2.91|
|Rise Up Australia||Regina McCarthy||917||1.99||+1.99|
|Total formal votes||46,019||92.57||+0.07|
|Country Liberal||Tina MacFarlane||22,606||49.12||+2.82|
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 4.3%
The Division of Brisbane is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. The division was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named after the city of Brisbane.
For most of the time since the 1950s, it has been a marginal Labor seat. However, in 2010 Liberal National challenger Teresa Gambaro, previously the member for nearby Petrie from 1996 to 2007, took the seat from longtime Labor incumbent Arch Bevis, marking the first time in over a century that Labor had been in government without holding Brisbane.
|Area||58 km2 (22.4 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Brisbane|
|Liberal National||Teresa Gambaro||41,681||47.99||+2.10|
|Palmer United||Veronica Ford||3,643||4.19||+4.19|
|Katter's Australian||Connie Cicchini||951||1.09||+1.09|
|Family First||Sharyn Joyner||801||0.92||−0.65|
|Stable Population||John Roles||564||0.65||+0.65|
|Total formal votes||86,857||96.12||−0.12|
|Liberal National||Teresa Gambaro||47,145||54.28||+3.15|
|Liberal National hold||Swing||+3.15|
Dobell (NSW) ** ALP 0.2%
The Division of Dobell is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1984 and is named for Sir William Dobell, the painter.
** This is one of three seats won by the Liberal Party in 2013 that have become notional Labor seats on the new electoral boundaries.
The division is located in the Central Coast region and includes the towns of The Entrance, Tuggerah and Wyong. The electorate stretches from Blue Haven in the north to Wyoming in the south, from The Entrance in the East through the Jilliby Valley. The division includes the suburbs Bateau Bay, Berkeley Vale, Blue Haven, The Entrance, Gorokan, Jilliby, Ourimbah, Toukley, Tuggerah, Tumbi Umbi, Wamberal, Wyoming, Wyong.
The Member for Dobell, since the 2013 election, is Karen McNamara, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.
|Namesake||Sir William Dobell|
|Area||775 km2 (299.2 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Dobell|
|Palmer United||Kate McGill||2,920||3.39||+3.39|
|Christian Democrats||Hadden Ervin||1,250||1.45||−0.97|
|Bullet Train||Christian Kunde||622||0.72||+0.72|
|Total formal votes||86,140||92.49||−1.45|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+5.75|
Paterson (NSW) ** ALP 0.4%
The Division of Paterson is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. It is located just north of Newcastle, on the coast of the Tasman Sea. The division is named after federation-era poet and author Banjo Paterson and was originally created in 1949 and abolished in 1984. It was recreated after a redistribution in 1992.
** This is one of three seats won by the Liberal Party in 2013 that have become notional Labor seats on the new electoral boundaries.
The division is located in the lower Hunter Valley and lower North Coast. It includes the towns of Maitland, Kurri Kurri Raymond Terrace, Tarro and Woodberry.
The current Member for Paterson, since the 2001 federal election, is Bob Baldwin, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia.
|Dates current||1949–84, 1992–present|
|Area||1,123 km2 (433.6 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Paterson|
|Palmer United||Jayson Packett||5,451||6.26||+6.26|
|Christian Democrats||Anna Balfour||1,854||2.13||+1.07|
|Rise Up Australia||Bob Holz||877||1.01||+1.01|
|Total formal votes||87,117||94.83||+0.47|
Barton (NSW) ** ALP 4.4%
The Division of Barton is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. The division was created in 1922 and is named for Sir Edmund Barton, the first Prime Minister of Australia.
** This is one of three seats won by the Liberal Party in 2013 that have become notional Labor seats on the new electoral boundaries.
The division has always been based in the inner southern suburbs of Sydney, and currently includes the suburbs of Arncliffe, Banksia, Bardwell Valley, Beverley Park, Bexley, Bexley North, Brighton-Le-Sands, Carss Park, Dolls Point, Kogarah, Kogarah Bay, Kyeemagh, Monterey, Ramsgate, Ramsgate Beach, Rockdale, Sandringham, Sans Souci, Turrella and Wolli Creek and parts of Beverly Hills, Carlton, Earlwood, Marrickville, and Kingsgrove.
The current Member for Barton, since the 2013 federal election, is Nickolas Varvaris, a member of the Liberal Party of Australia
|Namesake||Sir Edmund Barton|
|Area||44 km2 (17.0 sq mi)|
|Australian federal election, 2013: Barton|
|Palmer United||Edward Caruana||3,114||3.89||+3.89|
|Christian Democrats||Kylie French||1,549||1.94||+1.94|
|One Nation||Perry Theo||686||0.86||+0.86|
|Katter's Australian||Rodney Wyse||567||0.71||+0.71|
|Total formal votes||80,001||87.96||−2.22|
|Liberal gain from Labor||Swing||+7.17|