The Coalition Leadership spill: Business and the Stock Market ignored it why

Tuesday August 21, 2018 will undoubtedly go down as the most uninspired leadership spill ever in history on the back nothing has changed except for the untenable nature of the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Case in point, one of the worlds oldest and most respected broadcasters the BBC has dubbed Australia the Coup Capital of the world with more leaders having a bat since the GFC, more then ever before in the history of the Westminster style of government that Australia adheres to.

Another case in point is nearly half of them were not popularly elected rather to be voted in party rooms and not the ballot box.

Tuesday will also go down as the day that the Stock Market, The Currency market and business did not waver a percentage point at the end of the day, all of the above have basically states its business as usual if  Government can not get its act together then its up to business to keep the well oiled machine ticking along.

Usually when there is a Party Room spill the market reacts with a jitter in the figures, not this time and it probably echoes similarly on how the electorate reacted to the last by election which is explored later in this article.

By the end of the week we may very well have another leadership spill.

The Coalition has been dogged by poor opinion polls for quite some time, during the Longman by-election on 28 July 2018, which the Coalition suffered a drop by 10 % in the vote for the coalition candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, while the Labor Candidate Susan Lamb went on to win the By-Election  and increased her margin by 3 percent.

Peter Dutton, who holds the neighbouring seat of Dickson held by 3% margin has been viewed as an opportunity to strengthen support for the Coalition in regional Queensland.

Dutton has also been seen as a leading figure among the conservative wing of the Liberal Party holding many portfolios in the Howard (As Minister for Workforce Participation and Minister for Revenue and Asst Treasurer) , Abbott (As Minister for Sport, Health and Immigration and Border Protection) and Turnbull (As Home Affairs Minister) Governments.

Peter Dutton has clashed with Turnbull and his more moderate supporters over the National Energy Guarantee (NEG), particularly with targets to reduce carbon emissions in compliance with the Paris Agreement, among other issues in mid-2018.

Conservative supporters of Dutton included Tony Abbott, who was ousted by Turnbull as party leader and Prime Minister in September 2015.

In the days prior to the leadership election, Turnbull was forced backflip and make concessions on the NEG in an attempt to satisfy the rumblings against Turnbull by the more conservative members of his party, most notably abandoning the emissions reduction targets.

On 19 August 2018, Peter Dutton declared that he supported Malcolm Turnbull and the policies of the government.

However, support had been growing for a conservative Liberal Party member, often citing Peter Dutton specifically, to challenge Turnbull since 2017, especially when Turnbull performed poorly against the Labor Party in opinion polls.

The mainstream media airing popular commentators common theme that Malcolm Turnbull is the Best Prime Minister Labor ever had highlighting his left leaning tendencies.

In recent weeks, Peter Dutton made contradictory remarks regarding his intentions. Refusing to rule out his interest in becoming Prime Minister during a " Hack " interview.

Peter Dutton also claiming that he would resign from cabinet if he ever found himself unable to agree with a government policy during a 2GB interview.

In the hours leading up to the spill itself, many commentators speculated that Greg Hunt would also challenge Julie Bishop for the Deputy Leadership of the Liberal Party in the event that Dutton won the vote. However, due to Dutton failing to gain the support of the party, Julie Bishop was the sole contender for the Deputy Leadership.

Lets look at the whos who in the spill and who supported the candidates in the party room that put their hand up in the all positions vacant in leadership.

 

 

Supporters
Turnbull (48) Dutton (35)
Malcolm Turnbull   Peter Dutton  
Craig Laundy   Michael Sukkar  
Ken Wyatt   Greg Hunt  
Paul Fletcher   Steve Ciobo  
Dan Tehan   Michael Keenan  
Kelly O'Dwyer   Angus Taylor  
Christian Porter   Alan Tudge  
Julie Bishop   Concetta Fierravanti-Wells  
Scott Morrison   Ross Vasta  
Mitch Fifield   Bert van Manen  
Christopher Pyne   Tony Abbott  
Mathias Cormann   Kevin Andrews  
Marise Payne   Andrew Hastie  
Simon Birmingham   Jason Wood  
Michaelia Cash   Luke Howarth  
Josh Frydenberg   Nicolle Flint  
Alex Hawke   Zed Seselja  
John McVeigh   James Paterson  
Rowan Ramsey   David Bushby  
Nola Marino   Dean Smith  
Julian Leeser   Ben Morton  
John Alexander   James McGrath  
Trevor Evans   Rick Wilson  
Tim Wilson   Scott Buchholz  
Stuart Robert   David Fawcett  
Chris Crewther   Tony Pasin  
Sarah Henderson   Ian Goodenough  
Jason Falinski   Andrew Laming  
Lucy Wicks   Jonathan Duniam*  
David Coleman   Eric Abetz  
Jane Prentice   Ted O'Brien  
Julia Banks   Amanda Stoker  
Ann Sudmalis   Andrew Wallace  
Russell Broadbent   Karen Andrews  
Trent Zimmerman   Jim Molan  
Ian Goodenough   Craig Kelly  
Steve Irons   Sussan Ley  
Melissa Price      
Lucy Gichuhi      
Jane Hume      
Richard Colbeck      
Scott Ryan      
Anne Ruston      
Linda Reynolds      
Ian Macdonald      
Slade Brockman      
Jonathan Duniam*      
Warren Entsch      
Tony Smith      

Conflicting reports attribute Jonathan Duniam to voting for either Turnbull or Dutton.

The Final Tally Malcom Turnbull retained his role as Prime Minister 48 to Peter Dutton 35

As far as spills are concerned this was close, and out of it comes a clear picture there is a lot of disunity in the Federal Coalition party room backed by fear of what happened in Longman in the By-Election, the NEG backflip with escalating power prices, the lack of leadership in the Great Drought and the crisis affecting farmers along the Eastern side of Australia, immigration still out of control to the tune a population equal to Hobart each year since the GFC.

The fallout continues with nine ministers, including four members of Cabinet Peter Dutton Home Affairs Minister, Health Minister Greg Hunt, Human Services Minister Michael Keenan Minister and Trade Minister Steve Ciobo, The Assistant Minister to the PM, James McGrath, is among those on the list, along with Assistant Minister to the Treasurer, Michael Sukkar; Minister for Law Enforcement and Cyber Security, Angus Taylor; Assistant Minister for Science, Jobs and Innovation Zed Seselja and Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Minister for International Development and the Pacific.

Malcolm Turnbull after yesterday’s vote on the Liberal Party leadership has only accepted the resignations of two ministers.

 

Challenger Peter Dutton is expected to make another attempt to seize the leadership, possibly as early as tomorrow.

There are also reports some MPs are threatening to quit their seats or move to the crossbench if Dutton becomes Liberal Party leader.

Sounds confusing, it is when politics when it is in disarray, like a move that can't be seen clearly with the pieces not where they should be, hindsight if only we saw that play is echoed in the chambers.

The electorate as we saw in the article "Analysis: Federal Seat of Longman the silent voters who don't vote meaningfully " are just plain and simply tired of elections that do not produce the results the electorate wants, so they stop voting.

Now another claim is that Peter Dutton may not be serious about a challenge, that all this was nothing more then a trojan horse to test the waters on just how unpopular Malcolm turnbull is and for Tony Abbott to rescue the party from oblivion and return it back to traditional conservative values, directions and policies.

After all, all the electorate wants is cheaper, sustainable and reliable power, for business to grow, stem immigration, build infrastructure and  fix the plight of farmers so we keep out food basket in full production.

Watch this space if the latter happens expect another full blown election as early as October this year with new rejuvination, new vigour, policies and new faces.  A week is a long time in politics and no leader wants to wait a week to find out how it all plays out.

 

 

 

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