Short term weather trends 2018-2019 Season

Please note: Weather information is guided by the Bureau Of Meteorology , Oz Cyclone Chasers , Moreton Bay Regional Council and observations at Caboolture & surrounding districts of the Moreton Bay Region at 101.5 FM

Current Weather Events:

Very Short Term Weather/Month ahead

February 16 to February 17

At first Hot And Dry with highs of 36 then cooling down to around 30 c from Friday when coastal showers will resume with Average Summer conditions in South East Queensland with easterly coastal showers making regular light impact.  Upper level troughs just inland from the coast may cause some strong cells for the next few days.  Storms will travel from the west to east / North east.  Most of the activity will be strongest North of the Northern parts of the Sunshine Coast and Gympie

February 18 to February 24

Heat wave Conditions this week - Hydrate and stay cool, Or outside chance of a land crossing of Cyclone Oma between Bundaberg and the NSW/Queensland Border ** see Tropical Lows & Or Cyclones for South East Queensland below otherwise Average Summer Conditions for South East Queensland with easterly coastal showers making regular light impact. In this week we will be making regular updates should the tropical low track towards central or South East Queensland.

February 25 to March 3

Average Summer Conditions for South East Queensland

March 4 to March 10

Average Summer Conditions for South East Queensland

March 11 to March 18

Average Summer Conditions for South East Queensland (Historically cyclone active)

March 19 to March 25

Average Summer Conditions for South East Queensland (Historically cyclone active)

There has been a slight cooling in the El Niño pattern in zone 1,2 3 and 4 by 0.7 degrees which indicates the current cycle is moving towards a neutral pattern of neither El Niño or La Niña over the last few weeks, should this continue

Storms and Supercells:

None

 

**Tropical Lows & Or Cyclones for South East Queensland:

Tropical cyclone Oma:  the 27% chance scenario for this system is to impact on Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay region depends on both the strength and the location of an upper ridge that is currently located between The Moreton Bay Region and Bundaberg, another factor are short wave troughs that may weaken the upper ridge guiding it towards the SE Queensland area, however there is disagreement as to the location when the cyclone meets it, some models suggest the ridge will be further south then it is now.  The mechanics of the Ridge is to bring it to the coast north of the ridge and drag the system away back to sea south of the ridge.

The strength of the ridge its location and position of the cyclone are all important components as to where the cyclone will hit the coast if at all and where, this is rated at 27% chance, 40 % chance of a ducking and weaving out in the ocean towards eventually NZ and a 13 % chance of going east south east.

The dynamics is currently fluid and will be monitored daily from now

The Cyclone is currently rated as a Category 2 system. it is currently asymmetrical to the north

Currently Cyclone Monitor Status

Current Cyclones impacting on South East Queensland

None

Handy Links & Moreton Bay Regional Council Advisories

Important Contacts and Links

Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region

Get Moreton Bay Regional Council : Moreton Alert

Life threatening emergencies: Triple Zero (000)

SES flood or storm assistance: 132 500

Council: (07) 3205 0555

Council local road conditions at council’s website

Unitywater: 1300 086 489

Energex: 13 62 62

Department of Main Roads

Parking vehicles under solid shelter, with the handbrake on and in gear

Putting wooden or plastic outdoor furniture in backyard pools or inside with other loose items

Drawing curtains and shutting doors

Packing a kit with essential medications, baby formula, nappies, valuables, important papers, photos, mementoes in waterproof bags, as part of emergency kits

Checking neighbours — especially new arrivals — are aware of the situation and are preparing

Remaining indoors with pets, not moving to public shelters unless advised by local authorities

Keeping a battery operated radio and Staying tuned to local radio 101.5 for further information

Plus Moreton Bay region Checklist:

  • Know the risks – think about the risks in your local area. How could a cyclone, severe storm, flood or bushfire impact you?
  • Prepare your family – prepare an emergency plan about how to respond to local risks, including an emergency kit of essential items including a torch, battery operated radio and spare food and water (for at least three days).
  • Prepare your property – check your gutters, roof, and insurance for house and other property. Get to know your neighbours and see if you can work together to get ready.
  • Stay alert – tune in to warnings with MoretonAlert (register at www.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/moretonalert or call council 3205 0555), listen to radio updates or log onto the Bureau of Metereology’s website.
  • Take action – activate your emergency plan, locate your emergency kit, secure loose items and if you are evacuating do so early and check road conditions before setting off.

 For more information: https://getready.qld.gov.au/be-prepared and https://www.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/disaster/

https://getready.qld.gov.au/be-prepared

Tide Times at Beachmere

Dams Update

Road closures

0 road currently closed

Power Outages

Power Outages if updates not available here, then go here for a direct link https://www.energex.com.au/home/power-outages/emergency-outages

Other Warnings

If Its Flooded - Forget it !!

In the event of heavy rain falling, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.

Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.

Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.

No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.

Short term weather trends 2018-2019 Season

Forward Projections:

Climate outlook overview

  • The summer (December 2018 to February 2019) climate outlook, issued 29 November 2018, indicates large parts of WA, Queensland and the Top End of the NT are likely to be drier than average. The rest of the country shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average season.
  • Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for December to February.
  • Development towards El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean continues, with outlooks suggesting El Niño conditions are likely through the summer months. However, El Niño typically has a weaker influence on rainfall in southeastern Australia during summer than it does in winter and spring. 
  • The current positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been a significant contributor to dry conditions in southeast Australia. However, models expect the positive IOD to follow its normal seasonal cycle, and decay by early summer. See the Climate Influences section for more information

El Niño alert declared by Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology has just upped the chance of an El Nino this year, meaning there is now three times the normal risk of the climate driver associated with hot and dry conditions happening this year.

Senior climatologist Robyn Duell said it had been a slow boil.

"We've been hovering at an El Nino watch for a long time going 'Will it? Won't it?'" she said.

But Ms Duell said in the past three weeks staff had seen a little bit of a kick in the eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures, which was finally showing up in the winds.

"We've seen a response in the atmosphere. That's why we've raised our alert up from a watch to an alert," she said.

An El Nino is the phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) where the trade winds over the Pacific are weakened and even reversed, reducing the moisture avaliable on the east coast of Australia.

"Any given year there is a risk because El Nino is a normal part of our climate system. We get an El Nino on average every two to five years," Ms Duell said.

"That puts the risk at any given year at about a 25 per cent chance. At the moment we're looking at around a 70 per cent chance.

Potential for dry start to northern wet season

Widespread drought has been biting this year, especially in New South Wales.

"The dry conditions are very severe in large parts of eastern Australia and it's been quite devastating, the impacts for a lot of people," Ms Duell said.

She said an El Nino at this time of year would typically lead to a poor end to the southern wet season as well as a dry start to the northern wet season.

"Unfortunately the outlook does suggest for many that it's likely to be a dry end to the year."

Ms Duell said it had also been an unusually warm year — the warmest January to September on record for NSW and the Murray-Darling Basin.

The hot conditions intensify droughts as well as working together to increase the risks of heatwaves and bushfires.

But El Nino does not have a complete sweep on the disaster stakes — there is a relationship between El Nino and reduced numbers of cyclones, but people should not be complacent.

"Despite there being a reduced chance of tropical cyclone activity, this baseline risk that we always have every year still remains to communities in the north," Ms Duell said.

There has been at least one cyclone in Australian waters every year since records began, and it only takes one to be devastating.

Ms Duell said there was cool water to the north-east of Australia that indicated the country could currently be in the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) climate driver.

The IOD drives circulations across the Indian Ocean in much the same way as the ENSO does over the Pacific.

The positive IOD is the phase associated with dry conditions in Australia.

Ms Duell said El Nino and positive IOD events often worked together, occurring at the same time and often reinforcing each other.

January 2019 could see very widespread storm activity.

February is likely to be fairly dry, March and April could be fairly normal. 

During the whole period above the Coastal regions and the Coral sea is set to be fairly dry nulling any potential for cyclones. Over all it is predicted to be below average rainfall.

Early model estimates show that Australia will likely go through a slightly below average Tropical Cyclone Season.
 
Indications for precipitation forecasts are that the wet season will be near normal or slightly below normal.
 
The combination of a warm - neutral or weak El Nino event and a generally near normal IOD should result in
slightly fewer opportunities for cyclogenesis during the 2018/2019 season.
 
For Queensland and Northern Australia it is projected between 2 and 3 cyclones for the season
 
The distribution section shows that not all of Australia is likely to see below average activity though and that cyclone activity may be more prolific in a couple of months of the season so make sure you have a look at the maps in the distribution section for more detailed analysis of what current modelling shows.
 
It is important to understand that there is low confidence in this outlook at this early stage as climatic computer models are on
ly just starting to extend their range towards the back end of the wet season. Therefore,  it is important that you check back on November 10 for the updated outlook based on solid guidance run at shorter lead times.
 
Even at a short lead time it is important to note that climatic models couple the ocean and atmosphere at very coarse levels and won’t be able to accurately predict important wave features in the atmosphere that can commonly kick off Tropical Cyclones.
 
Notwithstanding their limitations, these outlooks give us a reasonable guide long term at what the overall indicators suggest is most likely to happen and are handy for farmers, graziers, risk assessors and many other professions that need to plan for long term probabilities and trends
 
January/February and March
 
Once again computer models show no significant variance from the norm across most of Northern Australia. However there are two exceptions  
 
The Central Eastern coast of Queensland from about Townsville to Bundaberg  and adjacent inland areas – computer models
are consistently indicating this area is likely to receive falls that are below average across the three prime wet season months.
 
This correlates closely to the expected well below average cyclone activity across these areas.
It is important to note that many places in the Central Queensland coastline will still see significant rainfall even with these negative anomalies as most sections of that coastline average 500mm – 900mm in that 3 month period.
 
The Western Kimberley – It is important to note here that while some significant rain deficits are being predicted, there is huge variability in model comparisons for this region.
 
I would be treading cautiously with the rain deficits models are currently predicting for this region, they could be erroneous especially considering this is being modelled as one of the more cyclone active regions of Australia in the coming season.
 

Bureau Of Meteorology Cyclone Outlook

Cyclone Liua formed near the Solomon Islands on September 27 and was downgraded just before entering Australian waters.

This was remarkable because the South Pacific's cyclone season, like ours, is nominally from November to April — that is a whole month-and-a-half early!

So is Liua and its early arrival a sign of things to come?

The outlook doesn't suggest so. A likely El Nino this year means the weather bureau is saying the chance of more tropical cyclones than normal is small.

"Indications are for a lower-than-average number of tropical cyclones, and we are less likely to have widespread flooding," said Bruce Gunn, the state manager of BOM Queensland.

But that doesn't mean we can be complacent.

"We are heading into what should be a warmer and dryer season ahead, which means a longer bushfire season, that's already upon us, an increased chance of heatwaves, continuing drought, unfortunately, and also an increased chance of coral bleaching," Mr Gunn said.

Australia has never had a season without at least one cyclone crossing the coast.

Mr Gunn reminded us that any cyclone that formed in the Coral Sea had a one-in-four chance of crossing the coast.

"It only takes one tropical cyclone to make a season, just like we saw with Tropical Cyclone Debbie."

What is a normal year?

According to the Bureau of Meteorology's website, the long-term average number of cyclones per season in the Australian region since 1969-70 is 11, with an average of four making landfall. But since 2000 there has only been an average of nine cyclones each season.

It is projected that in the future there will be fewer but more high-severity cyclones around the world due to human-induced climate change.

The cyclone season outlook is dependent upon the Southern Oscillation Index and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, both of which are also measures of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

This is because cyclone occurrences and El Nino are linked.

Typically in El Nino years, like this one is tipped to be, there are less cyclones than average because of cooler-than-average western Pacific Ocean temperature and descending stable air over Australia.

La Nina years tend to bring more cyclones.

Cyclones typically impact the coastal regions of northern Australia, but as Cyclone Debbie demonstrated in 2017, when flooding impacted from northern Queensland into New South Wales, their effects can be felt much further south.

It is expected that cyclones will travel further away from the equator as the climate warms.

Region Long-term* average number of cyclones Chance of more cyclones this season
Australian 11 37%
Western 7 44%
Northwestern sub-region 5 41%
Eastern 4 40%
Northern 3 46%

*Long-term average number of tropical cyclones, using data from the 1969-70 season to this (2018) season. Eastern is the Qld east coast, Northern covers the western Gulf coast and the NT, Western the WA coast and the Northwestern sub-region the sub section of WA, north of Carnarvon.

What should I do to prepare my home?

Dr David Henderson, the chief engineer at James Cook University's cyclone testing station, said this time of year, before the start of cyclone season, was a great time to see if there's any maintenance to do around the home.

"Our houses are actually big machines, we just hope they don't go anywhere. So, all the components in there have to do their job."

As people in cyclone regions shelter in their homes, Dr Henderson said it was great to get someone to help do an inspection every few years to make sure all those parts weren't rotted, rusted or corroded and that they're all doing their job.

"Our roofing needs to be attached to our battens, our battens to our rafters, and roof frame to our walls all the way down to ground level — like wrist bone down to elbow bone all the way down, to keep those forces to tie our houses down to the ground."

It was also important to ensure all upgrades to buildings were done effectively, especially when re-roofing pre-1980s houses, Dr Henderson said.

But even the best preparation can only go so far.

"For a lot of us in the cyclone regions, during the cyclone season there is a lot of rain entering into our house or buildings or workplaces," Dr Henderson said.

It could be damage that is allowing the water in or it could be just coming in anyway.

Dr Henderson said water could come through our normal doors and windows because the wind pressure pushing on the wall created a negative pressure inside the building.

"It's drawing that water and rain into our living spaces where we're sheltering. Our design standards, although these windows for modern houses meet the standards, they're not really there for our cyclone regions.

"We've got to do more to try to keep that water out."

Dr Henderson said when warnings went out as a cyclone approached, once people had cleaned up their yards and secured any loose items, they might want to put a cross or checkerboard pattern of masking tape on the inside of windows.

"If the window gets broken, it may help us in cleaning up the broken glass," he said.

"It doesn't make the window stronger. We still can't shelter behind it.

"We've got to follow the emergency services guidelines by sheltering in the smallest, strongest part of our house with mattresses around us, not standing behind bits of windows that could get broken at anytime."

So the masking tape may not be much help in preventing damage, but Dr Henderson has a trick to help keep the water out of your home.

"If we've got like, say, a garbage bag, we split it in half, we tape it along the bottom of the sill, tape it up the side, only about a foot or 300 millimetres up.

"That's like increasing the height of the sill of that window, or sliding door, and that's really stopping a lot of this wind-driven rain coming through the sliding windows."

His testing has found it to be very effective in stopping the water from coming in and prevented a lot of damage happening to the inside of the house.

No matter the outlook, there is still a chance of devastating cyclones this season so it pays to be prepared.

Notes

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