By Election 2018: Federal Seat of Longman Profile

Longman

Marginal Class Seat 0.79% (Labor at last election)

Profile

Longman is a predominantly urban electorate covering areas between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.  The Division of Longman covers much of the Moreton Bay Region. The seat's major centres include Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary, Narangba and Bribie Island, and includes the towns of Beachmere,  Dakabin, Donnybrook, Kallangur, Ningi, Toorbul,  Wamuran. It also stretches inland to include Woodford and Mount Mee. Covers 1,239 square kilometres.

A minor redistribution of Queensland's electoral boundaries has taken place since the 2016 election, but there are no changes to the boundaries of Longman.

Background

Longman was first contested at the 1996 election. It is named after Mrs Irene Longman, who was the first woman elected to the Queensland Parliament, holding the seat of Bulimba 1929-32.

Longman was won at its first contest by the Liberal Party's Mal Brough. He retained the seat through numerous boundary changes and rose to serve as Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Services in the final term of the Howard government, being responsible for implementing the intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.

At the 2004 election, the Coalition's interest rates campaign against Labor Leader Mark Latham paid dividends in outer-suburban seats such as Longman where Brough's margin ballooned into double figures. However, a redistribution and a 10.3% swing in 2007 revealed the true marginal seat status of Longman, Brough becoming the highest profile ministerial casuality of the election, if you overlook the remarkable defeat of Prime Minister John Howard in his own seat of Bennelong. Brough returned to the House of Representatives as member for Fisher at the 2013 election, but a series of political difficulties saw him retire at the 2016 election.

Longman was won by Labor's Jon Sullivan in 2007. He was a former state MP whose wife represented a local state seat while Sullivan served as Federal MP. Sullivan received some advantage in 2010 with the LNP pre-selection of the then 20 year-old Wyatt Roy as its candidate. This advantage was nullified by bad headlines concerning a dispute between Sullivan and a constituent at a public forum. Roy won Longman in 2013, becoming the youngest person ever elected to Federal Parliament, but the swing to the LNP of 3.8% was below the state average. That was rectified with a further 5% swing to Roy in 2013, leaving him with a margin of 6.9% going into the 2016 election.

Still only 26, Wyatt Roy faced re-election in 2016 after being appointed Assistant Minister for Innovation when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. He was defeated by a 7.7% swing, the largest in any Queensland seat that finished as a two-party contest. Only Family First voters favoured him in the distribution of preferences, with One Nation recommending preferences to Labor and 56.5% of One Nation voters following the advice.

Labor's Susan Lamb was elected but faced questions over her eligibility to be an MP as the citizenship issue grew in intensity. Lamb was estranged from her mother, and before nominating had been unable to provide the British government with a marriage certificate that would prove her UK citizenship and allow the British government to renounce the citizenship. Labor claimed they had legal advice that Lamb had taken sufficient steps to meet the Constitutional requirement, but the decision in the Katy Gallagher case left Lamb and three other House members with no other option than to resign from Parliament.

Having taken alternative steps to obtain her parent's marriage certificate, and with the British consulate now aware of the need for certain renunciations to be processed more quickly, Lamb has renounced her UK citizenship and is free to contest the by-election.

Opinion Polls

2016 election: ALP (35.4%), LNP (39.0%), One Nation (9.4%), Green (4.4%), Other (11.8%).

Two-Party Preferred ALP(50.8%), LNP(49.2%)

10 May 2018 a  ReachTEL poll conducted a poll of  1277.

The Result of that poll on primary vote ALP (32.5%), LNP (36.7%), One Nation (15.1%), Greens (4.9%), Other (6.4%), Undecided  (4.5%) which translated on two Party preferred ALP (47%) LNP (53%)

2 June 2018 ReachTel Poll conducted a poll of 836.

The result of that poll on primary vote ALP (35%), LNP (38%), Greens (2%), Other (14%), Undecided (11%) which translated on two party preferred ALP (48%) LNP (52%). A second question was asked on company tax cuts were found to be unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. Note: One Nation result was not given by ReachTEL

21 June 2018 ReachTel Poll (no details of sample)

The result has the two party result as ALP 50% and LNP 50% (only Two party preferred result was given)

The candidates:

Susan Lamb (Labor)

National & State Links:

Australia Labor Party Website, Australian Labor Party Wikipedia Entry,Australian Labor Party Facebook ,

Queensland Labor Party WebsiteQueensland Labor Party Wikipedia Entry, Queensland Labor Party Facebook,

Queensland Labor Party Twitter,

Candidate Profile:

43-year-old Lamb was a teacher aide before becoming a lead organiser with United Voice in 2012. She lives in Dakabin.

Susan was the previous MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.

Susan has lived in Longman for more than 26 years. She has raised her family of four sons here and been involved in local primary schools, high schools, community and sporting clubs. Before entering parliament Susan worked in a national role advocating for professional recognition for early childhood educators with United Voice Union.

Susan and her family have a history of work in the hospitality, manufacturing and building industries. She knows and understands how important a safe, secure and well paid job is for every family. Her family’s involvement in small business also means Susan understands the importance of giving small businesses the opportunity to build and grow, so that they can deliver high quality local jobs and opportunities for our community.

Susan spent 10 years as a teacher aide and knows the importance of high quality education and the foundation it lays for the future of our children. As a mother of two university students, one VET student and one secondary school student Susan knows the challenges students face today.

Facebook site

Twitter Account

Website

Trevor Ruthenberg (LNP)

National and State Links:

Liberal Party of Australia Website, Liberal Party of Australia Wikipedia Entry,

Liberal Party of Australia Facebook site , LNP Website, LNP Twitter account, LNP Facebook , LNP Wikipedia Entry,

LNP All Federal Canidates

Candidate Profile:

Trevor Ruthenberg says he will be campaigning on problems that Susan Lamb and Labor have ignored and won't talk about:

  • Dealing with local crime
  • Fixing road congestion in our area
  • Working to create local jobs - especially in traditional trades and services

Just to let you know a bit about me:

I served for six years in the ADF, where I trained as an aeronautical ground engineer before working overseas in the automation industry. I came home and started working in the community sector, first for the Lutheran Church and later as the General Manager of Scouts Queensland. Between 2012 and 2015 I served as the State Member for Kallangur where I got a new school built and lowered the cost of living pressure felt by local families. I'm currently the CEO of Mosaic Foundation, a new not-for profit that raises money for, and supports, other charities.

There will be a very clear choice for voters, the LNP that manages the economy responsibly for the benefit of all Australians, or Labor – who don't govern within their means and have to rely on imposing higher taxes, and taking more income from the self-funded retirees who live in our community.

Trevor was a one-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election for the LNP.

Trevor Ruthenberg Election Facebook Page,  the public can Email Trevor Ruthenberg  or phone his campaign number 0450 265 835

Matthew Stephen (One Nation Party)

National & State Links:

Party Website http://www.onenation.com.au/,

Candidate Profile:

Matthew Stephen previously ran as the One Nation candidate for the Queensland State Seat of Sandgate at the 2017 State Election, which drew some controversy due to racist and homophobic tweets that were revealed to had been made on social media. He is a businessman and a Caboolture local.

Matthew joined One Nation after feeling disillusioned with the major political parties. Matthew believes that the major parties have lost the mandate in which they once stood for and have forgotten the people they are elected to represent. In Matthew’s opinion, every day hardworking Australian’s have been forgotten, as career politicians continue to push their own agenda for personal gain rather than best interests of the people. He feels frustrated with the pandering of the PC elite and their constant attempts to water down facts.

A family man, Matthew is raising his two children with his wife—making that four generations of locals supporting locals.

Matthew is a local small businessman who employees locals and voices strong concerns for the future employment opportunities not just in his electorate, but for the whole state and country. He strongly believes that One Nation policies when explained and implemented properly will create the very binding fabric that this great state and country requires to prosper into the future.

He is ready to represent the forgotten people of Longman who’s vote for too long has been taken for granted with concerns falling on deaf ears. He guarantee’s, that if elected he will fight for Longman’s fair share of resources and will work tirelessly to deliver the infrastructure and community services the electorate so disparately needs and deserves.

A vote for Matthew is a vote for change, a vote for the better.

Matthew Stephen Election Facebook page

Blair Verrier (Australian Country Party)

National & State Links:

Party Website Australian Country Party Website, Australian Country Party Facebook, Australian Country Party Queensland Branch Facebook,

Candidate Profile:

Blair Verrier is a local 32yr old woman who has lived and worked in the electorate since she was 8 years of age.  She runs her own accounting and finance business as a Certified Practising Account, has a Bachelor of business (accounting) and Diploma of Financial Services (FP).  She is involved in a number of community groups and organisations including Toorbul Pony Club as an instructor and Business and Professional Women.

She brings youth and enthusiasm to the table while retaining her strong social conservative values.    In her statement released last night she stated   “I am humbled at being given the opportunity to represent the people of Longman, and am committed to fight and work for them.   My experience in business and living my life in the district will assist me in solving some of the major issues people face here. “

Blair Verrier Facebook,

John Reece (Australian People's Party)

National and State Links:

Australian Peoples PartyCandidates for the Federal By Elections

Candidate Profile:

John was born in Lowood, QLD. He is the father of two children. Schooled at Maryborough Boys High, he completed a fitter and turner trade at Walkers’ Maryborough and was a fully qualified tradesman by the age of 20. He has worked as a fitter in many industries and sales, eventually working his way up to QLD manager.

John’s hobbies include restoring and racing Mini Coopers. He was an independent candidate for the Longman electorate in 2010. John grew up in the 50’s and 60’s, when Australia was the best country in the world to live in. Since the 70’s, politicians of all parties have been gradually destroying Australia. His aim is to bring back 50’s and 60’s for future generations.

He is hoping to give Australia a new start and bring Australia back to Australians!

John Reece ran as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.

Voters wishing to contact John can do so on 0470232221 or via email austpeoplesparty@gmail.com

John's Profile on the Party website

Lloyd Russell (Liberal Democrats)

National and State Links:

Liberal Democrats Website, Liberal Democrats Facebook Page.

Candidate Profile:

Lloyd Russell is a Family Business Consultant from Caboolture, the QLD Exc has endorsed Lloyd Russell will be our candidate for the upcoming Longman by-election in July.

Lloyd Russell, initially from Central Western Queensland, is a business owner, before which he worked in the private and public sectors and has had a diverse career ranging from working in agriculture, being a Pastoral House Branch Manager, lending specialist in the State Government, undertaking export development while at the Queensland Department of Agriculture, General manager for a steel fabrication business and now a specialist family business continuity and succession consultant. He is an active member of a number of organisations notably Family Business Australia and the Australian China Business Council, a Board Director and is a life member of the Ferny Districts Cricket Club

Lloyd is a familiar face amongst those who attend the monthly meetings and always provides insightful commentary when discussing the issues at hand.

We couldn't be more confident in someone to represent the LDP and our values.

Lloyd Russell Facebook page,

Gavin Behrens (Greens)

National and State Party Links

Greens Party Federal Website, Greens Party Federal Wikipedia Entry, Greens Party Federal Facebook,

Greens Party Queensland Website, Greens Party Queensland Wikipedia Entry, Greens Party Queensland Facebook

Candidate Profile:

Gavin Behrens was born in Redcliffe and raised in Caboolture. Gavin says "I grew up in Caboolture and I’m lucky to live in a community with an optimistic, hardworking approach to the future for their children". I’ve spent over 20 years in the IT industry, working locally with small businesses and government agencies to assist with the streamlining of our community services.

I am thrilled to be the Greens candidate for the coming Longman by-election and I am looking forward to campaigning hard for the issues that matter most to our community.

Whether people live on Bribie, in Woodford or Morayfield, the issues that face us are the same. Rising power bills, transport costs, rates and rents are squeezing the very last dollar out of our pockets. Work is harder to find and harder to keep when you get it.

I grew up in Caboolture and am proud to call myself a Longman local. I’ve spent over 20 years in the IT industry, working locally with small businesses and government agencies to assist with the streamlining of our community services. I’m lucky to live in a community with an optimistic, hardworking approach to their own futures and that of their children.

There are opportunities for everyone in Longman but they can only be realised if the politician that wins makes sure we get the funding we need for our schools, the investment we need for extra health services for our kids and aging parents, and fixes the system so all of us get the chance to study or retrain to keep up with a changing world.

We live somewhere beautiful. We enjoy the lifestyle and the community feel of each of our unique Queensland townships and as the Federal Member for Longman I will fight to preserve all the good things we have while demanding a better deal on the things we keep missing out on.

As the candidate for the by-election I will be fighting for a better future for all of us.

Gavin is an active volunteer in the community and member of Electronic Frontiers Australia and the Australian Electric Vehicle Association. He was the Green candidate for the local seat of Morayfield at the 2017 Queensland election..

Contact Gavin Behrens Facebook Site https://www.facebook.com/GavinBehrens.Greens/ or email Gavin Behrens gavin.behrens@qld.greens.org.au

Dr Jackie Perkins (Independant)

Candidate Profile:

Dr Jackie Perkins is a home-grown independant candidate for Longman with the education and experience to make a real difference to the many challenges facing the region.

Born and raised in Bald Hills, Northside of Brisbane, I have found many potholes along the road towards the Australian Dream. I am now keen to apply my education and experience towards restoring that dream for others.

My first career was as a psychiatric nurse and my next and present career was as a Veterinarian, my special interest is in combining the two; I believe that pets are good for the soul. I received my PhD in Veterinary Science in 2010, conducting original research on dog therapy for older persons. Together with my brother-in-law Ken, I have also published original material on canine personality types.

Both of my two brothers went to St Pauls High School at Bald Hills and became drug addicts, they were presumably victims of sexual abuse during those years. Christopher died in 1981 due to drugs and I have always been keenly interested in how to manage but preferably to solve, mental health and drug issues.

I have experienced domestic violence myself firsthand with all of the social shunning that follows. I was also relieved of my property and assets as a result, and no-one responded to my calls for assistance, including my politicians at all levels. That was when I decided to apply myself to improving the system for others stuck in the domestic violence vortex. Hence, I am running as an independant candidate in the Longman by-election.

Jackie Perkins Facebook, Jackie Perkins Campaign Linked in Page,

James Noonan (The Science Party)

National and State Party Links

The Science Party, known as Future Party until March 2016, is an Australian political party established in 2013, this party is considered in its political position as radical centre, and follows, Populism, Techno-progressivism, "Bright green" environmentalism. Technocentrism, Australian Republicanism and Cornucopianism.

Party WebsiteScience Party Facebook page,

Candidate Profile:

James Noonan is a criminology and criminal justice graduate.

I'm happy to announce that I will be standing as a Science Party candidate for the  in the 2018 Longman by-election. We have a substantial journey ahead, however, I feel that with your support our goals will be achievable. Principles | Evidence | Progress.

I graduated Griffith University in 2017 with a Bachelor of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Having followed the political scene throughout my education, like a lot of Australians I became disenfranchised with the policies of the major political parties. Policy should be informed by supporting data, not decided arbitrarily, and the people of Longman deserve better.

To take the next step in our evolution Australia needs to adjust the way it looks at criminal justice, health, education, and social reform. All Australians should benefit from well funded public services that improve our quality of life. I want you to have the opportunity to influence change in your electorate by supporting the Science Party and my campaign in Longman.

Running for election, however, is not cheap. Simply registering as a candidate requires a $1,000 deposit, and it costs about 10 cents to reach a voter with our message. Please help with whatever you can, even if it's just a friendly wave or greeting when you see me out and about.

James Noonan Facebook Candidate page,

 

 

Candidate due for release of information June

Candidate due for release of information July

Result 2 Party Preferred in 2016

The numbers on the map below represent the two party preferred vote percentages at each polling place at the 2016 Federal Election. Red numbers represent the Labor Party, blue numbers represent the Liberal National Party.

Note: You will need to zoom in on the map to view all individual numbers.

 

Longman Booth Catagories

 

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone.

Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

Labor won a large two-party-preferred majority of 60.8% in Caboolture-Morayfield and a smaller majority of 53.9% in Burpengary. The LNP won majorities in the two less populous areas: 52.9% in Pumicestone and 54.2% in the west.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 7.8% in Pumicestone to 10.9% in the west.

Voter group ON prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield 10.1 60.8 15,881 18.0
Burpengary 8.4 53.9 14,942 17.0
Pumicestone 7.8 47.1 8,969 10.2
West 10.9 45.8 5,359 6.1
Other votes 11.0 45.8 14,479 16.4
Pre-poll 9.0 48.2 28,438 32.3

Election results in Longman at the 2016 federal election

Longman 2 Party Preferred

 

The Division of Longman is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland. The division was first proclaimed in 1994. The division is named after Irene Longman, the first female member of the Parliament of Queensland and the third woman elected to a parliament in Australia.

Entering parliament at the age of 20, Longman's current representative, Wyatt Roy for the Liberal-National Party, was at election Australia's youngest ever parliamentarian.

The Electoral Boundaries

Longman covers much of the Moreton Bay Region, including the former Caboolture Shire and some of the former Pine Rivers.

The Division of Longman is a predominantly urban and situated to the north of Brisbane and covers much of the Moreton Bay Region, including the former Caboolture Shire and some of the former Pine Rivers. It includes the towns of Beachmere, Bribie Island, Burpengary, Dakabin, Donnybrook, Kallangur, Ningi, Toorbul, Caboolture, Morayfield, Wamuran, Woodford and Narangba.

   
 
Created 1996
MP Currently Vacant
Party  
Namesake Irene Longman
Electors 94,050 (2013)
Area 1,239 km2 (478.4 sq mi)
Demographic Provincial
   

Prior Members to represent this seat in the Federal House Of Representatives

Mal Brough (Liberal) from 1996-2007

John Sullivan (Labor) from 2007-2010

Wyatt Roy (LNP) 2010-2016

Susan Lamb (Labor) 2016-2018.

Election results

Australian federal election, 2016: Longman
Party Candidate Votes % ±
  Liberal National Wyatt Roy 34,359 39.01 −5.83
  Labor Susan Lamb 31,161 35.38 +4.73
  One Nation Michelle Pedersen 8,293 9.42 +9.42
  Greens Ian Bell 3,865 4.39 +0.45
  Family First Will Smith 3,002 3.41 +1.05
  Drug Law Reform Frances McDonald 2,677 3.04 +3.04
  Katter's Australian Brad Kennedy 1,597 1.81 −1.01
  Independent Greg Riddell 1,111 1.26 +1.26
  Independent Rob Law 945 1.07 +1.07
    Caleb Wells 830 0.94 −0.13
  Arts Stephen Beck 228 0.26 +0.26
Total formal votes 88,068 91.47 −3.46
Informal votes 8,217 8.53 +3.46
Turnout 96,285 91.60 −2.25
Two-party-preferred result
  Labor Susan Lamb 44,729 50.79 +7.71
  Liberal National Wyatt Roy 43,339 49.21 −7.71
  Labor gain from Liberal National Swing +7.71  
State/Territory:
Queensland
Status:
Current, boundary gazetted 15 December 2009
AEC Divisional Office:
Divisional Office contact details
Maps & GIS data:
A4 map of the Division of Longman (2009) [PDF 717KB]
Map of the Division of Longman (2009) [PDF 3MB]
Download GIS data
Name derivation:
Named after Irene Longman (1877–1964), first female member of the Queensland Parliament 1929–1932, and third woman elected to a parliament in Australia.
Area and Location Description:
Longman covers an area of approximately 1 239 sq km covering part of the local government area of Moreton Bay Regional Council. Suburbs and towns include Beachmere, Bribie Island, part of Burpengary, Caboolture, Dakabin, Donnybrook, part of Kallangur, Morayfield, Mount Mee, Narangba, Ningi, Toorbul and Woodford.
Products/industries of the area:
Tourism, light industry, beef cattle, horse studs, prawn farming, poultry farms, pig farming, and various crops including grains, pineapples, fruit and flower farms.
First proclaimed/election:
1994/1996
Demographic rating:
Provincial
Current member details:
Please refer to the Parliament of Australia website
Further information:
          2016 federal election - House of Representatives results for Longman
2013 federal election – House of Representatives results for Longman
2010 federal election – House of Representatives results for Longman
2007 federal election – House of Representatives results for Longman
2004 federal election – House of Representatives results for Longman
2013 divisional profile
For supporting information, see Party codes, demographic ratings and seat status.

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