Short term weather trends
The rest of the week coastal showers may show up during the afternoons otherwise mostly fine days .
Short Term Predictions:
Tropical Low may develop just east of Vanuatu, which will enter in to Fiji's Area of responsibility
Possible rain developing Saturday 3rd and 4th of November with a front from the South and Possible couple of unstable days around November 7-9
Up to the 14th of November dry (Below average rainfall) the first half of the month. From the 14th of November some instability should reemerge with rain possible, and with some coastal showers, tapering off from the 21st of November
December could see increased storm activity for mid central Queensland, Atherton Tablelands and the Whitsundays region in December, possible rain bursts from the 12th of December.
January 2019 could see very widespread storm activity.
February is likely to be fairly dry, March and April could be fairly normal.
During the whole period above the Coastal regions and the Coral sea is set to be fairly dry nulling any potential for cyclones. Over all it is predicted to be below average rainfall.
It is possible the El Niño will revert back to Neutral status by the end of the current Cyclone Season by around April.
For August 20-27 towards the weekend a trough system will influence South East Queensland and Northern NSW, with thunderstorm activity and with it rains of between 50 and 100 mm possible so for Brisbane 13-37-84 mm and for Sunshine coast 8-35-79mm based on low-average- high models
The North - East coast of the NT – computer models show the Gove/Nhulunbuy region receiving up to 100mm below their average over the next three months.
Climate outlook for November to January
Issued 25 October 2018
Climate outlook overview
- The November to January climate outlook, issued 25 October 2018, indicates large parts of Australia are likely to be drier than average.
- November, in particular, is likely to be drier than average in many areas. However, areas to the east of the Great Dividing Range show no strong indication of either a wetter or drier month.
- November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average, except for areas surrounding the Great Australian Bight.
- A drier and warmer than average three months would mean a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australia.
- Current observations and model outlooks indicate the chance of El Niño has increased and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely underway. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
A drier three months likely for large parts of Australia
- November to January is likely to be drier than average for large parts of Australia. However, most of the northern tropics and eastern NSW have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months, i.e., no strong push towards a wetter or drier season ahead.
- Most of Australia is likely to have a drier than average November. However, areas to the east of the Great Dividing Range have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
- Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia has been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The November to January outlook indicates many drought-affected areas are not favoured to see significant drought-breaking rains in the coming three months.
- Historical outlook accuracy for November to January is moderate to high across with patches of low to very low accuracy in the NT, inland WA and northeast NSW. See map for more detail.
Rainfall maps (toggle-select to enlarge)
Warmer days for Australia likely to continue
- Above-average daytime temperatures observed across Australia during 2018 are likely to continue into early 2019.
- November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances of a warmer three months are greater than 80% over most of the mainland.
- Nights are also likely to be warmer than average across Australia, except for southeast WA, southern SA and western Victoria, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal.
- Historical accuracy for November to January maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, but low in northern interior WA and the southern NT. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for most of Australia, except northern WA, the central NT, and central to northern parts of Queensland where accuracy is low to very low.
Maximum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge)
Minimum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge) MORE MAPS
- The tropical Pacific Ocean has been warming in recent weeks. The Bureau's model indicates this warming will continue, with El Niño likely to develop before the end of the year. El Niño typically results in below-average spring rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, and warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country. By summer, the rainfall influence from El Niño contracts to the tropical north, while warmer days remain likely for large parts of the country.
- It is likely that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway, as 5 of the past 6 weeks have exceeded positive IOD thresholds. The Bureau's model suggests positive IOD values will continue through October and return to neutral during November. A positive IOD typically decays in late spring or early summer. A positive IOD during spring typically reduces rainfall across much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and can exacerbate any El Niño-driven rainfall deficiencies. During December to April, the IOD typically has little effect on Australian climate.
- Across northern Australian waters, sea surface temperatures have been average to cooler than average in recent months. This can lead to reduced rainfall as less atmospheric moisture is available for rain-bearing weather systems which move over the continent.
- In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
- Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.
Handy Links & Moreton Bay Regional Council Advisories
Should they be required here is where to get Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region
0 road currently closed
Moreton Bay Regional 0
If Its Flooded - Forget it !!
With heavy rain falling across large parts of the state today, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.
A number of drivers were rescued after proceeding through flooded roads in the Wide Bay area yesterday.
As the rain moves further south, police are warning drivers particularly around the Sunshine Coast, Caboolture and Brisbane areas to slow down, turn their headlights on and increase their stopping distance.
Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.
Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.
No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.