Short term weather trends

As we move from winter towards Spring and summer, the long range outlook is for Spring was favouring a El-Niño pattern by 65% and by Summer 2018-2019 by 70% with a warming of the equatorial Pacific.

With the above general trend over July and the early part of August there has been a stalling of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean to the east of Australia, which may keep the La Niña-El Niño remaining in a neutral pattern rather then migrating to El Niño pattern we shall continue wait and see.

El-Niño means a chance of lack of wide spread rainfall, a chance of a lack of Cyclonic impact on the Queensland coast, while a more neutral pattern may indicate similar to the 2017-2018 Summer Season albeit slightly dryer.

There are signals that convective warming waters around the Coral sea by January but no earlier which are possible seeds for cyclonic activity in Australian waters.

Forward projections on the long term weather for Queensland with the development of the El Niño is no longer set in stone with the stalling effect that has happened over the last month or so, this is being amplified by its continual stalling which will have an influence on the long range weather for Queensland. 

With a slow start to the Summer Storms in mind the current long range weather models are now predicting storm activity to begin in Late November predominantly for South East Queensland.

December could see increased storm activity for mid central Queensland, Atherton Tablelands and the Whitsundays region in December.

January 2019 could see very widespread storm activity.

February is likely to be fairly dry, March and April could be fairly normal. 

During the whole period above the Coastal regions and the Coral sea is set to be fairly dry nulling any potential for cyclones. Over all it is predicted to be below average rainfall.

 

Notes

The Seasonal Climate Summary is prepared to list the main features of the weather in Australia using the most timely and accurate information available on the date of publication; it will generally not be updated. Later information, including data that has had greater opportunity for quality control, will be presented in the Monthly Weather Review, usually published in the fourth week of the month.

Climate Summaries are usually published on the first working day of each month.

This statement has been prepared based on information available at 1 pm EST on Friday 1 June 2018. Some checks have been made on the data, but it is possible that results will change as new information becomes available, especially for rainfall where much more data becomes available as returns are received from volunteers.

Long-term averages in this statement and associated tables are for the period 1961 to 1990 unless otherwise specified.

The system used for calculating areal averages of rainfall was changed in May 2009; the main effect was that current and historical values for Tasmania were increased. Since December 2012, ACORN-SAT has been used for calculating areal averages of temperature; the major change from earlier datasets is that the ACORN-SAT dataset commences in 1910, and hence rankings are calculated using a larger set of years.

See our ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary for information and forecast of El Niño and La Niña and the IOD.

Further Notes: BOM Climate Notes This week

See the Bureau's Climate Outlooks for long-range rainfall and temperature guidance.

Madden–Julian Oscillation assists development of Indian monsoon

A moderate-strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues to move eastwards across the Indian Ocean. International climate models predict this MJO pulse will move towards Australian longitudes, but some models forecast it to weaken or become indiscernible in the coming week. Roughly half of the models maintain the MJO pulse at moderate strength and indicate it will move over the Maritime Continent, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall to Australia's north. With the MJO over the western Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent at this time of the year, an onshore wind regime typically develops along the Queensland east coast, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall in some parts of Queensland.

The MJO has been a significant factor in the tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity across the northern Indian Ocean. A vigorous monsoon trough, marking the northward advance of the southwest Indian monsoon, has developed across the region, and currently lies just south of the Indian subcontinent, across the Andaman Sea and into the Bay of Bengal. The Indian Meteorological Department predicts conditions will remain favourable for the monsoon trough to reach the far southern Indian mainland in the next day or two, constituting the official onset of the southwest Indian monsoon.

See the Bureau's current MJO monitoring for more information.

Always monitor our Facebook page and listen on air on the FM band 101.5 Mhz or listen live via our website above.

Handy Links & Moreton Bay Regional Council Advisories

Important Contacts and Links

 

Dams Update

Should they be required here is where to get  Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region

  • Seqwater advises low flow releases from Somerset Dam into Wivenhoe Dam  have stopped
  • Seqwater advises flood releases from North Pine Dam have stopped.

    If you are downstream of the dam, avoid fast flowing or deep water near waterways and floodplains.

    No further updates for this weather event will be issued and Seqwater's Flood Operations Centre is no longer active.

Road closures

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Power Outages

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Other Warnings

 

 

If Its Flooded - Forget it !!

With heavy rain falling across large parts of the state today, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.

A number of drivers were rescued after proceeding through flooded roads in the Wide Bay area yesterday.

As the rain moves further south, police are warning drivers particularly around the Sunshine Coast, Caboolture and Brisbane areas to slow down, turn their headlights on and increase their stopping distance.

Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.

Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.

No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.

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