Short term weather trends

Current systems: 

The rest of the week coastal showers may show up during the afternoons otherwise mostly fine days .

Short Term Predictions:

Tropical Low may develop  just east of Vanuatu, which will enter in to Fiji's Area of responsibility

Possible rain developing Saturday 3rd and 4th of November with a front from the South and Possible couple of unstable days around November 7-9

Up to the 14th of November dry (Below average rainfall) the first half of the month. From the 14th of November some instability should reemerge with rain possible, and with some coastal showers, tapering off from the 21st of November

December could see increased storm activity for mid central Queensland, Atherton Tablelands and the Whitsundays region in December, possible rain bursts from the 12th of December.

January 2019 could see very widespread storm activity.

February is likely to be fairly dry, March and April could be fairly normal. 

During the whole period above the Coastal regions and the Coral sea is set to be fairly dry nulling any potential for cyclones. Over all it is predicted to be below average rainfall.

It is possible the El Niño will revert back to Neutral status by the end of the current Cyclone Season by around April.

Early model estimates show that Australia will likely go through a slightly below average Tropical Cyclone Season.
 
Indications for precipitation forecasts are that the wet season will be near normal or slightly below normal.
 
The combination of a warm - neutral or weak El Nino event and a generally near normal IOD should result in
slightly fewer opportunities for cyclogenesis during the 2018/2019 season.
 
For Queensland and Northern Australia it is projected between 2 and 3 cyclones for the season
 
The distribution section shows that not all of Australia is likely to see below average activity though and that cyclone activity may be more prolific in a couple of months of the season so make sure you have a look at the maps in the distribution section for more detailed analysis of what current modelling shows.
 
It is important to understand that there is low confidence in this outlook at this early stage as climatic computer models are on
ly just starting to extend their range towards the back end of the wet season. Therefore,  it is important that you check back on November 10 for the updated outlook based on solid guidance run at shorter lead times.
 
Even at a short lead time it is important to note that climatic models couple the ocean and atmosphere at very coarse levels and won’t be able to accurately predict important wave features in the atmosphere that can commonly kick off Tropical Cyclones.
 
Notwithstanding their limitations, these outlooks give us a reasonable guide long term at what the overall indicators suggest is most likely to happen and are handy for farmers, graziers, risk assessors and many other professions that need to plan for long term probabilities and trends
.

For August 20-27 towards the weekend a trough system will influence South East Queensland and Northern NSW, with  thunderstorm activity and with it rains of between 50 and 100 mm possible  so for Brisbane 13-37-84 mm and for Sunshine coast 8-35-79mm based on low-average- high models

 

FAR NORTH - EAST COAST – NORTH OF CAIRNS
No clear signs of above or below average activity is being represented for this region. Current model estimations suggest December and February are the most likely months for cyclogenesis opportunities or cyclonic impacts in the region.
 
On average this section of the coast gets hit by a Tropical Cyclone once every 2 years.
 
NORTH EAST COAST – CAIRNS TO MACKAY
 
This region sees a clear division in cyclone opportunities on early model indicators.
 
The areas nearer Cairns a re being shown to be close to or very slightly below the climatological average while areas between Ingham and Mackay are currently being shown to expect a below average cyclone season.
 
February is being tipped as the ‘hot’ month when it comes to cyclogenesis opportunities and possible cyclone impacts on this  section of coastline .
 
As mentioned previously we will be able to speak more confidently on this once we issue the November update.
On average this section of the coast gets hit by a Tropical Cyclone approximately once every 2 years.
 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEENSLAND COASTLINE – MACKAY TO GOLD COAST
 
Current model estimation show that a combination of a warm ENSO event, poor VWS values and general west to east broadscale steering will result in a well below average cyclone season for this stretch of coastline with most/all threats remaining offshore.
If there was to be a month that models show the risk slightly heightened to near average it would be February.
 
On average this section of the coast gets hit by a Tropical Cyclone once every 7 - 10 years.
 
October/November/December
 
RAINFALL FORECASTS
Rainfall forecasts on the whole show falls near to or just below average across most of Tropical and subtropical Australia.
 
It is important to understand that falls in the next three months tend to be highly variable and dependant on isolated/scattered storm activity rather than widespread rain events.
 
October/November/December
Falls are generally expected near to or slightly below average across large areas of the north.
 
However there are two key regions that are exhibiting signs of being significantly drier than normal.
 
The North - East coast of Queensland from around Mackay to the tip of Cape York Peninsula.
 
Models show that this coastal section could be receiving up to 100mm less than their averages over the next three months.
The adjacent inland areas of this region may see below average falls as well. It is important to note that many places in the Wet Tropics coastline will still see significant rainfall even with these negative anomalies as some sections of that coastline average 400mm – 800mm in that 3 - month period.
 
Meanwhile an anomaly like that will definitely be felt in adjacent inland areas or the Dry Tropics regions

The North  -  East coast of the NT – computer models show the Gove/Nhulunbuy region receiving up to 100mm below their average over the next three months.

 
January/February and March
 
Once again computer models show no significant variance from the norm across most of Northern Australia. However there are two exceptions  
 
The Central Eastern coast of Queensland from about Townsville to Bundaberg  and adjacent inland areas – computer models
are consistently indicating this area is likely to receive falls that are below average across the three prime wet season months. This correlates closely to the expected well below average cyclone activity across these areas.
 
It is important to note that many places in the Central Queensland coastline will still see significant rainfall even
with these negative anomalies as most sections of that coastline average 500mm – 900mm in that 3 month period.
 
The Western Kimberley – It is important to note here that while some significant rain deficits are being predicted, there is huge variability in model comparisons for this region.
 
I would be treading cautiously with the rain deficits models are currently predicting for this region, they could be erroneous especially considering this is being modelled as one of the more cyclone active regions of Australia in the coming season.
 

Notes

Climate outlook for November to January

Issued 25 October 2018

Climate outlook overview

  • The November to January climate outlook, issued 25 October 2018, indicates large parts of Australia are likely to be drier than average.
  • November, in particular, is likely to be drier than average in many areas. However, areas to the east of the Great Dividing Range show no strong indication of either a wetter or drier month.
  • November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average, except for areas surrounding the Great Australian Bight.
  • A drier and warmer than average three months would mean a low chance of recovery for drought-affected areas of eastern Australia.
  • Current observations and model outlooks indicate the chance of El Niño has increased and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely underway. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

A drier three months likely for large parts of Australia

  • November to January is likely to be drier than average for large parts of Australia. However, most of the northern tropics and eastern NSW have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months, i.e., no strong push towards a wetter or drier season ahead.
  • Most of Australia is likely to have a drier than average November. However, areas to the east of the Great Dividing Range have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
  • Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia has been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The November to January outlook indicates many drought-affected areas are not favoured to see significant drought-breaking rains in the coming three months.
  • Historical outlook accuracy for November to January is moderate to high across with patches of low to very low accuracy in the NT, inland WA and northeast NSW. See map for more detail.

Rainfall maps (toggle-select to enlarge)

Rainfall
November
Rainfall
December
Rainfall
November to January
Rainfall
November to January

Warmer days for Australia likely to continue

  • Above-average daytime temperatures observed across Australia during 2018 are likely to continue into early 2019.
  • November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances of a warmer three months are greater than 80% over most of the mainland.
  • Nights are also likely to be warmer than average across Australia, except for southeast WA, southern SA and western Victoria, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal.
  • Historical accuracy for November to January maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, but low in northern interior WA and the southern NT. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for most of Australia, except northern WA, the central NT, and central to northern parts of Queensland where accuracy is low to very low.

Maximum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge)

Maximum temperature
November
Maximum temperature
December
Maximum temperature
November to January
Maximum temperature
November to January

Minimum temperature maps (toggle-select to enlarge) MORE MAPS

Minimum temperature
November
Minimum temperature
December
Minimum temperature
November to January
Minimum temperature
November to January

Climate influences

  • The tropical Pacific Ocean has been warming in recent weeks. The Bureau's model indicates this warming will continue, with El Niño likely to develop before the end of the year. El Niño typically results in below-average spring rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, and warmer days for the southern two-thirds of the country. By summer, the rainfall influence from El Niño contracts to the tropical north, while warmer days remain likely for large parts of the country.
  • It is likely that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway, as 5 of the past 6 weeks have exceeded positive IOD thresholds. The Bureau's model suggests positive IOD values will continue through October and return to neutral during November. A positive IOD typically decays in late spring or early summer. A positive IOD during spring typically reduces rainfall across much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and can exacerbate any El Niño-driven rainfall deficiencies. During December to April, the IOD typically has little effect on Australian climate.
  • Across northern Australian waters, sea surface temperatures have been average to cooler than average in recent months. This can lead to reduced rainfall as less atmospheric moisture is available for rain-bearing weather systems which move over the continent.
  • In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
  • Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.
 
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If Its Flooded - Forget it !!

With heavy rain falling across large parts of the state today, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.

A number of drivers were rescued after proceeding through flooded roads in the Wide Bay area yesterday.

As the rain moves further south, police are warning drivers particularly around the Sunshine Coast, Caboolture and Brisbane areas to slow down, turn their headlights on and increase their stopping distance.

Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.

Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.

No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.

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