Short term weather trends
This La Niña had broken down to its more neutral in its state - Long range forecasting suggests that the Neutral La Niña-El Niño with a slight shift towards El Niño but only slight leading in to the next years wet season in November later this year - however an anomaly of the last week or so has seen cooler waters in the pacific near the Equator get cooler then normal signalling a strength of La Niña signal .
The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a cooler start to winter for Queensland with colder-than-average nights and close to average sunny days likely for the next three months.
This ends the short weather trends for the 2017-2018 Cyclone summer season and a new page will become available later this year
- A cloud and rain band will develop across Central Queensland on Wednesday to Friday and some light to moderate falls of rain are expected over inland regions and some very light falls over coastal regions
- A cold front comes through South-West WA on Sunday and extends another rain band into the Gascoyne and Pilbara on Sunday night to Tuesday. At this stage the expectations are for falls to be lighter than the previous system, but nevertheless some moderate falls may occur with this system.
- Cold air will move well north into Qld, WA and NT once the upcoming Central QLD cloud band moves away over the weekend. Widespread frosts are expected right through Queensland all the way into North and Far Northern inland regions early to mid next week with overnight temperatures plummeting.
- Tropical Cyclone Bud will hit the Mexican coastline in the next few days in a much weakened form.
- A significant trough system remains in operation over the NW Pacific through the coming 4-5 days and numerous weak LOWS may form along it.
- A weak trough across the Solomon Islands may spawn a very small and very weak LOW for about 24 hours before dissipating.
- The MJO is set to reform over the North Indian Ocean over the weekend but at this stage, while we will see an increase in the westerly flow associated with the Northern Hemisphere monsoon we aren't seeing any obvious cyclone signals in that part of the world.
Climate outlook June to August
The current dry spell that in being experienced is likely to continue for some time, with warmer then average temperatures for this period. The main drivers for these conditions are the neutral Pacific and Indian Ocean weather anomalies and high pressure zones over the Great Australian Bight restricting cold fronts from reaching mainland Australia.
The next Long range weather summary is expected on July 14
Australia in autumn 2018
- An exceptionally warm autumn for Australia; nationally the fourth-warmest autumn on record
- Maxima and minima both above average, and days exceptionally warm for large areas and for Australia as a whole
- National monthly mean maximum temperature for autumn fourth-warmest on record for autumn
- Only Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Tasmania rank outside the top ten for autumn mean maximum temperature
- Autumn rainfall totals were below average for most of Australia, and very much below average across the southern mainland
- Rainfall was above average between the southeast of the Northern Territory and Queensland's North Tropical Coast, due to above to very much above average rainfall during March
Autumn was exceptionally warm for Australia. All regions except Tasmania, Queensland, and the Northern Territory observed mean temperatures for the season amongst the ten warmest on record, and for Australia as a whole it was the fourth-warmest autumn on record (1.18 °C above the long-term average). Both maximum and minimum temperatures were warmer than average for Australia, particularly maxima, which were the fourth-warmest on record for autumn (+1.74 °C). Minima ranked just outside the top ten, at 0.62 °C above the long-term average
Daytime temperatures for autumn were above average for nearly all of Australia, in the highest 10% of historical observations (decile 10) for most areas except for Tasmania and for Queensland away from the southern border. Mean monthly maxima were the warmest on record for much of New South Wales, including Sydney; parts of Victoria, particularly far eastern Victoria; and about Northwestern Cape in Western Australia.
Mean minimum temperatures were above to very much above average for the majority of Australia. Minima were below average for most of the Kimberley in Western Australia and the southeastern Top End in the Northern Territory. Minima were near average for much of the remainder of the northeastern quarter of Western Australia, the southwest of the Northern Territory, parts of Queensland's east and Gulf Country, along the border of New South Wales and Victoria inland of the Great Dividing Range, and in areas along the south coast of Western Australia.
Each of the individual months of autumn was warmer than average nationally, although heavy rain and associated cloud cover led to below average maxima for March over much of northern Queensland, and mean monthly minima were cooler than average for a large area stretching from the Kimberley in Western Australia, through the south of the Northern Territory, into pastoral South Australia. April was an exceptionally warm month, with persistent abnormal warmth setting records for intensity, persistence, or both. Records set are discussed in a Special Climate Statement Persistent summer-like heat sets many April records.
|Areal average temperatures|
|Maximum Temperature||Minimum Temperature||Mean Temperature|
|Australia||106||+1.74||4th highest (record +2.17 °C in 2005)||95||+0.62||106||+1.18||4th highest (record +1.86 °C in 2016)|
|New South Wales||109||+2.66||highest (was +2.41 °C in 2016)||101||+1.10||9th highest||108||+1.88||2nd highest (record +2.21 °C in 2016)|
|Victoria||108||+1.74||2nd highest (record +1.83 °C in 2016)||91||+0.58||106||+1.17||4th highest (record +1.87 °C in 2016)|
|Tasmania||= 87||+0.34||98||+0.68||= 94||+0.51|
|South Australia||107||+2.06||3rd highest (record +2.83 °C in 2005)||92||+0.76||102||+1.42||8th highest|
|Western Australia||108||+2.03||2nd highest (record +2.37 °C in 2005)||89||+0.50||105||+1.26||5th highest|
|Northern Territory||102||+1.55||8th highest||75||+0.18||92||+0.87|
Rank ranges from 1 (lowest) to 109 (highest). A rank marked with ’=‘ indicates the value is tied for that rank. Anomaly is the departure from the long-term (1961–1990) average.
Autumn rainfall was below to very much below average for most of Australia. Rainfall for the season was in the lowest 10% of historical observations (decile 1) for much of the southern mainland; for southern Australia as a whole, autumn rainfall was the second-lowest on record. New South Wales, South Australia, and Western Australia all observed area-averaged autumn rainfall amongst the ten lowest on record for their respective States, with a number of stations in New South Wales and Western Australia receiving record-low rainfall for the season.
Rainfall was below average for most of the southern mainland in each month of autumn. April was the eighth-driest on record nationally, and May was the third-driest on record. A number of stations in Victoria, and New South Wales observed record-low monthly rainfall totals for April, followed by more record-low rainfall totals for May in New South Wales.
There is a consistency between low rainfall this autumn for southern Australia and climate change.
March rainfall was above to very much above average for much of the south of the Northern Territory, and western, central, and much of northern Queensland. Rain in these regions was largely the result of a tropical low in early March, and tropical cyclone Nora late in the month; some daily rainfall records were set in Queensland associated with each of these events. Tropical cyclone Marcus also affected the Top End and Western Australia during March, becoming the most intense tropical cyclone in the Australian region for more than a decade.
Southeastern Tasmania observed above average May rainfall, largely as a result of a single event when a complex low pressure system brought record-breaking rain overnight from the 10th to 11th, with significant flooding around Hobart.
|New South Wales||8||56.5||−60%||8th lowest; lowest since 2005|
|Western Australia||7||34.3||−62%||7th lowest; lowest since 1994|
|Murray-Darling Basin||8||47.4||−60%||8th lowest|
Rank ranges from 1 (lowest) to 119 (highest). A rank marked with ’=‘ indicates the value is tied for that rank. Departure from mean is relative to the long-term (1961–1990) average.
|Australian weather extremes in autumn 2018|
|Hottest day||45.9 °C||at Roebourne Aero (WA) on the 28th and Mardie (WA) on 29 March|
|Coldest day||−2.6 °C||at Mount Hotham (Vic.) on 10 May|
|Coldest night||−6.7 °C||at Perisher Valley AWS (NSW.) on 25 May and Glen Innes Airport AWS (NSW) on the 31st|
|Warmest night||31.7 °C||at Wittenoom (WA) on 28 March|
|Wettest day||593.0 mm||at Port Douglas - Warner St (Qld) on 26 March|
The Seasonal Climate Summary is prepared to list the main features of the weather in Australia using the most timely and accurate information available on the date of publication; it will generally not be updated. Later information, including data that has had greater opportunity for quality control, will be presented in the Monthly Weather Review, usually published in the fourth week of the month.
Climate Summaries are usually published on the first working day of each month.
This statement has been prepared based on information available at 1 pm EST on Friday 1 June 2018. Some checks have been made on the data, but it is possible that results will change as new information becomes available, especially for rainfall where much more data becomes available as returns are received from volunteers.
Long-term averages in this statement and associated tables are for the period 1961 to 1990 unless otherwise specified.
The system used for calculating areal averages of rainfall was changed in May 2009; the main effect was that current and historical values for Tasmania were increased. Since December 2012, ACORN-SAT has been used for calculating areal averages of temperature; the major change from earlier datasets is that the ACORN-SAT dataset commences in 1910, and hence rankings are calculated using a larger set of years.
Further Notes: BOM Climate Notes This week
Madden–Julian Oscillation assists development of Indian monsoon
A moderate-strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues to move eastwards across the Indian Ocean. International climate models predict this MJO pulse will move towards Australian longitudes, but some models forecast it to weaken or become indiscernible in the coming week. Roughly half of the models maintain the MJO pulse at moderate strength and indicate it will move over the Maritime Continent, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall to Australia's north. With the MJO over the western Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent at this time of the year, an onshore wind regime typically develops along the Queensland east coast, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall in some parts of Queensland.
The MJO has been a significant factor in the tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity across the northern Indian Ocean. A vigorous monsoon trough, marking the northward advance of the southwest Indian monsoon, has developed across the region, and currently lies just south of the Indian subcontinent, across the Andaman Sea and into the Bay of Bengal. The Indian Meteorological Department predicts conditions will remain favourable for the monsoon trough to reach the far southern Indian mainland in the next day or two, constituting the official onset of the southwest Indian monsoon.
See the Bureau's current MJO monitoring for more information.
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Handy Links & Moreton Bay Regional Council Advisories
Should they be required here is where to get Sandbags in the Moreton Bay Region
- Seqwater advises low flow releases from Somerset Dam into Wivenhoe Dam have stopped
- Seqwater advises flood releases from North Pine Dam have stopped.
If you are downstream of the dam, avoid fast flowing or deep water near waterways and floodplains.
No further updates for this weather event will be issued and Seqwater's Flood Operations Centre is no longer active.
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If Its Flooded - Forget it !!
With heavy rain falling across large parts of the state today, police are urging motorists to drive to conditions and heed the message: if it’s flooded, forget it.
A number of drivers were rescued after proceeding through flooded roads in the Wide Bay area yesterday.
As the rain moves further south, police are warning drivers particularly around the Sunshine Coast, Caboolture and Brisbane areas to slow down, turn their headlights on and increase their stopping distance.
Under severe storms or heavy rain bands, flash flooding can occur very quickly and without any notice – even on roads that you usually travel on without any issues.
Flash flooding can cause significant structural damage to roads, so even if you think it looks safe, you can never be sure exactly what is underneath the water.
No matter what car you drive, no matter what bike you ride, no matter what shoes you wear – if it’s flooded, forget it.