Queensland State Election : The Primer Page

With the forthcoming Queensland State Election, Moreton Bays Home of Information 101.5 will present in the lead-up and during the election phase, articles which will inform in a easy to navigate format and links to related and relevant pages.

This page in particular will be what binds all this information together, so you the voter can make an informed decision on election day.

We will initially focus our attention on all the seats in the Moreton Bay Region and seats that we routinely cover, they are found in our spotlight series including a new seat that was born from the 2016 seat redistribution.

This is the list of nine seats that will be of most interest locally:

Nanango,Pumicestone,Glasshouse, Pine Rivers, Kurwongbah, Morayfield, Murrumba, Redcliffe, , and the new seat of Bancroft.

These links also contain full seat profiles, a complete list of candidates in order of the ballot paper, party affiliation or as an independent, contact details, websites for both party and candidate as well as a podcast as part of the "Get to know your candidate series". Finally available is Pre Poll information, where to go as well as the polling booths locations for Election day November 25.

The information will be updated regularly as information comes to hand, so its encouraged you revisit these pages from time to time.

Articles and all content related to the 2017 Queensland State Election are available here

For a party to win government in this forthcoming election, they must secure 47 seats in their own right or as a coalition of party's.

The Labor government currently has 41 seats and needs to gain a further 6, so with the pendulum below, labor will want to target those seats with 2% or less margin conservatively, and the opposition LNP will target labors 2% or less margin seats, that is the simple maths out of the way.

The third party in State Parliament is One Nation with Buderim MP Steve Dickson, the sole member and leader will naturally be working hard to ensure he doesn't remain alone in the chamber.

Finally the Greens may well be represented in Brisbane City Council, but not in the State arena and they will be working hard to at least gain one member.

Notable changes this time around also include changes to how to fill in your ballot on voting day. You must to place a number against each candidate in order of your preference. No longer can you simply place a 1 next to your preferred candidate in your electorate.

Lastly from the next term of office, who ever wins government will be a fixed term 4 year term and with that we will already know the date of the election for the following election.

2015 Queensland Post-Election Pendulum

**Labor (44)**
Ferny Grove	0.8
Bundaberg	1.6
Springwood	1.7
Maryborough	1.7
Pumicestone ****	2.1
Mount Coot-tha	2.6
Mundingburra	2.8
Barron River	3.1
Brisbane Central	3.3
Greenslopes	4.2
Ashgrove	4.3
Keppel	4.8
Mirani	4.8
Stretton	5.0
Thuringowa	5.5
Townsville	5.7
Bulimba	6.1
Kallangur	6.1
Cook	6.8
Algester	7.0
Capalaba	7.1
Sunnybank	7.2
Murrumba	7.4
Redcliffe (*)	7.6
Ipswich West	7.7
Pine Rivers	7.7
Cairns	8.5
Stafford (*)	9.6
Lytton	9.8
Sandgate	10.1
Logan	10.8
Nudgee	11.2
Gladstone	11.9	v IND
Morayfield	11.9
Mackay (*)	12.4
Mulgrave (*)	12.8
Waterford	13.3
Yeerongpilly	13.3
South Brisbane (*)	13.8
Rockhampton (*)	13.9
Ipswich	15.9
Bundamba (*)	21.4
Inala (*)	25.1
Woodridge (*)	25.9

**LNP (42)**
Lockyer	0.2	v ONP
Mount Ommaney	0.2
Whitsunday	0.4
Mansfield	0.5
Glass House	1.4
Toowoomba North	1.6
Albert	1.7
Everton	1.8
Gaven	2.2
Redlands	2.2
Chatsworth	2.6
Burdekin	2.9
Southport	3.2
Caloundra	3.8
Aspley	5.2
Currumbin	5.2
Cleveland	5.5
Burleigh	6.2
Hervey Bay	6.6
Callide	6.7	v PUP
Indooroopilly	6.7
Burnett	6.8
Gympie	7.1
Hinchinbrook	7.1
Broadwater	7.2
Clayfield	7.2
Beaudesert	7.5
Moggill	8.2
Coomera	8.5
Noosa	8.6	v GRN
Toowoomba South	8.9
Maroochydore	9.3
Kawana	10.1
Mudgeeraba	11.0
Gregory	11.1
Buderim***	12.2
Mermaid Beach	12.9
Nanango	13.2
Warrego	15.4
Condamine	16.3
Southern Downs	19.2
Surfers Paradise	19.2

**Katter's Australian Party (2) / Independent (1)**
Nicklin	14.9	v LNP
Dalrymple	15.1	v LNP
Mount Isa	15.2	v LNP

The electoral pendulum orders seats from the most marginal to safest based on results of the last election adjusted for the redistribution. All margins are shown as two-party preferred contests between Labor and the LNP. There will be notes below the table for alternative two-candidate preferred margins in selected seats.

Labor (48 seats)

Electorate	Margin
Bundaberg	0.5%
Mansfield (*)	0.8%
Mount Ommaeny (*)	1.0%
Maryborough	1.1%
Burdekin (*)	1.4%
Springwood	1.4%
Mundingburra	1.8%
McConnel	3.1%
Cooper	3.3%
Barron River	3.6%
Mirani	3.8%
Keppel	4.1%
Pine Rivers	4.1%
Greenslopes	5.0%
Stretton	5.3%
Ferny Grove	5.3%
Miller	5.6%
Townsville	5.7%
Bulimba	6.1%
Logan	5.9%
Macalister	6.4%
Murrumba	6.3%
Capalaba	6.5%
Thuringowa	6.6%
Cook	6.8%
Kurwongbah	7.1%
Cairns	7.5%
Redcliffe	7.6%
Bancroft	8.3%
Toohey	8.3%
Ipswich West	9.1%
Nudgee	9.2%
Stafford	9.3%
Mackay	10.2%
Lytton	9.9%
Algester	9.6%
Sandgate	10.1%
Waterford	13.1%
Morayfield	13.5%
Jordan	13.5%
Mulgrave	12.9%
South Brisbane	13.8%
Rockhampton	14.0%
Ipswich	16.0%
Inala	20.6%
Gladstone	25.3%
Woodridge	25.8%
Bundamba	25.9%

LNP (42 seats)

Electorate	Margin
Pumicestone (*)	0.1%
Whitsunday	0.6%
Glass House	0.9%
Redlands	1.2%
Toowoomba North	1.6%
Lockyer (v ONP)	1.6%
Bonney	2.2%
Everton	2.0%
Gaven	2.8%
Maiwar	3.0%
Aspley	3.2%
Hinchinbrook	3.4%
Chatsworth	3.3%
Caloundra	4.7%
Theodore	5.3%
Burleigh	5.5%
Currumbine	5.7%
Oodgeroo	5.7%
Coomera	5.8%
Hervey Bay	6.5%
Burnett	6.6%
Clayfield	6.6%
Ninderry	6.9%
Noosa	6.8%
Moggill	8.1%
Southport	7.8%
Gympie	7.6%
Toowoomba South	8.4%
Scenic Rim	9.2%
Callide	9.8%
Kawana	10.2%
Mermaid Beach	10.3%
Maroochydore	10.3%
Mudgeeraba	10.4%
Gregory	10.9%
Buderim (now ONP)	11.8%
Nanango	13.3%
Warrego	14.5%
Broadwater	16.3%
Condamine	17.1%
Southern Downs	19.2%
Surfers Paradise	20.4%

KAP/IND (2/1)

Electorate	Margin
Nicklin (IND v LNP)	..
Hill (KAP v LNP)	4.9%
Traeger (KAP v LNP)	16.1%

Notes: Electorates marked (*) have notionally changed party status on the new boundaries. As noted earlier, since the 2015 election, the sitting members for Cairns, Cook and Buderim have left their party. Independent member for Nicklin Peter Wellington has announced he will not contest the next election. (Note this is based on research done by Antony Green)

Additional Notes for the above Pendulum:

Murrumba & Bancroft:

East of the Bruce Highway between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, the electorate of Murrumba was well over quota on its old boundaries. As the map below shows, the northern end of Murrumba has been fashioned into the new seat of Bancroft, while Murrumba makes up numbers by stretching west of the Bruce Highway.

Pumicestone:

The major boundary change to Pumicestone covers a sliver of land west of the Bruce Highway. At the last three elections this seat has covered central Caboolture, and the strong Labor vote in the area at the 2015 election delivered victory to Labor.

The new boundaries add a different bit of Caboolture that is less urban, cutting the Labor vote and making Pumicestone a notional LNP seat.

Labor loses a seat with the abolition of Mt Coot-tha. It gains the new seats of Bancroft north of Brisbane and Macalister and Jordan to the south. The boundary changes to the LNP seats of Burdekin, Mansfield and Mt Ommaney tip the seats on to the Labor side of the electoral pendulum, though all three will be defended by sitting LNP members. Labor held Pumicestone goes in the opposite direction in becoming a notional LNP seat.

The LNP gain the new seats of Ninderry on the Sunshine Coast and Theodore and Bonney on the Gold Coast. It notionally loses Burdekin, Mansfield and Mt Ommaney on the new boundaries but notionally gains Pumicestone.

The Katter's Australian Party seat of Dalrymple has been divided between several other electorates. The new seat of Hill, formed from parts of Dalrymple, Hinchinbrook and Mulgrave, has a more marginal KAP majority compared to Dalrymple.

The flow of Green preferences to Labor has been much higher under full preferential voting at recent Federal elections in Queensland. Labor was clearly keen to ensure these strong preference flows also applied at state elections.

A year later the change in preference rules looks less clever with the re-emergence of One Nation. One Nation has bitten into the support of both major parties, but past elections have shown that it is the LNP's base that is the LNP that loses more votes to One Nation than Labor

With One Nation lowering the LNP's first preference vote, the retention of optional preferential voting would have worked in the Labor Party's favour, as it did at state elections from 2001 to 2006. Full preferential voting will see more One nation votrers retuirn to the LNP after preferences.

Full preferential voting means that voters must choose between and order all candidates and parties on the ballot paper, including a choice between the traditional major parties. Voters will no longer be able to exhaust their preferences after selecting their most preferred parties and candidates.